Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies

The Milwaukee Brewers will travel west for the second time in three weeks, visiting Denver and Los Angeles to face the Rockies and Dodgers, respectively. Last time out west, Milwaukee went 3-4 against the Angels and Padres, winning two of three games in Anaheim before losing three of four in San Diego.

The Rockies are 28-55 and ended a five-game losing streak on Sunday. They have the second-worst record in baseball, behind only the White Sox. They have been a little more successful at home, going 16-24, and on the road 12-31.

In terms of injuries, the Rockies have struggled more with injuries to outfielders than pitchers. Outfielders Kris Bryant, Zac Veen and Jordan Beck, as well as top prospect Adael Amador, are all currently out of action. Pitchers Germán Márquez, Antonio Senzatela, Jake Bird and Josh Rogers are also out for extended periods.

Offensively, the Rockies are led by the left side of their infield. Third baseman Ryan McMahon and shortstop Ezequiel Tovar have combined for 26 home runs, 78 RBIs and 84 runs scored despite both playing nearly every game (80 for McMahon, 81 for Tovar). Catcher Elias Díaz is just returning from injury and has posted a solid .303/.352/.439 batting average with five home runs and 28 RBIs after earning an All-Star appearance last year. Michael Toglia has provided some momentum with nine home runs in 36 games, but he only has a .187/.235/.447 batting average this year.

Brenton Doyle is Colorado’s biggest speed-killer with 19 steals this season, seven home runs and 27 RBIs, while Nolan Jones is having a rough season after a strong rookie season. He hit .192/.298/.323 with three home runs in 39 games and has battled injuries all season. As a team, Colorado’s offense is middle of the pack, hitting .245/.305/.392 (16th in OPS) with 79 home runs (21st), 345 runs scored (19th) and 45 steals (21st).

On the mound, the bullpen was bolstered by Jalen Beeks, who made 35 appearances and leads the team with six saves while posting a 4.66 ERA. Tyler Kinley made 34 appearances and has a perfect 5-for-5 record in save opportunities, although he posted an 8.80 ERA in 30 ²⁄₃ innings. Reliever Victor Vodnik is second on the team with an ERA of 4.32 over 41 ²⁄₃ innings, trailing only starter Cal Quantrill, who is having a pretty good season with a 3.78 ERA in 17 starts. Other than the offense, Colorado’s pitching staff is in last place with a 5.68 ERA, more than a run worse than the next worst team (4.66 ERA for Arizona). They are also in last place with 536 strikeouts in 721 innings and only 15 of 27 save opportunities.

Probable pitchers

Monday, July 1, 7:40 p.m.: Bryse Wilson (5-3, 3.89 ERA, 4.88 FIP) vs. Austin Gomber (1-5, 4.63 ERA, 4.89 FIP)

Wilson is coming off another solid season in Milwaukee, posting a 3.89 ERA and a 5-3 record in 19 appearances (nine starts). He has been strong in two of his last three appearances, striking out 5 ¹⁄₃ scoreless against the Reds and six scoreless against the Rangers with a tough five-run, 4 ²⁄₃-inning appearance against the Padres between those appearances. In three appearances (one start) against the Rockies, Wilson is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA and four strikeouts in 5 ¹⁄₃ innings.

Despite his higher ERA, Gomber’s FIP this season is almost identical to Wilson’s. He had a rough month of June, going 0-3 as the Rockies lost all five of his starts and allowing 24 earned runs in 23 innings (9.39 ERA). A former St. Louis Cardinal, Gomber has made seven appearances (three starts) against the Brewers, with a 5.40 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 16 ²⁄₃ Career innings.

Tuesday, July 2, 7:40 p.m.: Dallas Keuchel (0-0, 11.25 ERA, 8.40 FIP) vs. Ryan Feltner (1-7, 5.82 ERA, 4.15 FIP)

Keuchel, who came to Milwaukee from Seattle for just $1, got off to a rocky start in his Brewers debut, but the offense helped him, ultimately leading to a win for the Crew. He allowed five runs on eight hits and one walk with four strikeouts in four innings. In four appearances (three starts) against the Rockies in his career, Keuchel is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 21 ¹⁄₃ innings.

Like Gomber, Feltner went 0-3 in June, finishing with a 6.59 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 27 ¹⁄₃ innings over five starts. In his last start against the Astros, he looked a little better, allowing four runs (two earned) on six hits and one walk with two strikeouts in six innings. In two career starts against Milwaukee, Feltner has a 5.06 ERA with 10 strikeouts in 10 ²⁄₃ innings.

Wednesday, July 3, 7:40 p.m.: Colin Rea (7-2, 3.61 ERA, 4.80 FIP) vs. Dakota Hudson (2-11, 5.84 ERA, 5.27 FIP)

Rea had a solid month of June, going 3-0 with a 3.25 ERA and 20 strikeouts over 27 ²⁄₃ Innings. In his last outing against the Cubs, Rea hit 5 ¹⁄₃ innings, allowing two runs on three hits, two walks and two hit-by-pitches while striking out eight batters, a season high. In two career starts against the Rockies, Rea has an ERA of 4.35 with nine strikeouts in 10 ¹⁄₃ innings.

Hudson went 0-4 in June, allowing multiple runs in all five starts as he finished the month with a 7.77 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 24. ¹⁄₃ innings. His last start was against the White Sox, where he allowed five runs on six hits and five walks in five innings. Hudson, another former Cardinal, is 1-4 with a 5.14 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 35 innings in 10 appearances (seven starts) against the Brewers.

Thursday, July 4, 7:10 p.m.: Tobias Myers (5-2, 3.26 ERA, 4.40 FIP) vs. Cal Quantrill (6-5, 3.50 ERA, 4.33 FIP)

Myers continues to impress, finishing June with an ERA of 1.44 (five runs in 31 ¹⁄₃ innings) and 24 strikeouts in five starts, with a perfect 4-0 record. That also helped lower his season ERA from 5.40 on May 31 to 3.26 after his start on Saturday against Chicago. This is Myers’ first career appearance against Colorado.

Quantrill is the only Rockies starter who had a solid June, going 2-3, with a 4.26 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 31 ²⁄₃ innings in six starts. In his last start against the White Sox, he allowed five runs on seven hits with eight strikeouts in five ¹⁄₃ innings. He made just one appearance against the Brewers, allowing one hit, striking out once and recording just two outs.

forecast

While the Rockies have had a rough couple of years, the Brewers have struggled in Colorado since sweeping them in the NLDS in 2018. From 2019-2023, they’ve gone just 13-14 against the Rockies, including 3-10 at Coors Field. Still, I think this Rockies team has only gotten worse, so I’m predicting the Brewers will win three of four games before heading to LA to face the Dodgers.