Where Michigan State Football Stands in the National Rating System

Michigan State and Coach Jonathan Smith are about to start the new season after an eventful offseason. Coach Smith and the Spartans have had to deal with many difficulties this offseason.

However, many in the college football world believe the troubles are just beginning for the Spartans. Michigan State has begun the process of rebuilding its football program, which usually comes with a forgettable first season.

After releasing the Football Power Index preseason rankings, ESPN believes that will be the case for the Spartans as well. ESPN has Michigan State ranked 68th nationally in its FPI rankings, the 17th best ranking among the 18 schools in the Big Ten.

According to ESPN, “FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure the strength of teams and project future performance. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams from 1 to 128, but rather to correctly predict games and season results. If Vegas ever released the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely be very similar to FPI.

“FPI is not a playoff prediction tool and is not designed to identify the four teams most deserving of making the College Football Playoff. In the preseason, these components consist entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coach tenure.”

According to ESPN’s FPI simulations, the Spartans are projected to finish the season 5-7 and have a 36.4 percent chance of winning six games. After everything they’ve been through this offseason, winning five games would be a win for Smith and his coaching staff.

A six-win season with a bowl game would be a significant accomplishment for Smith and his coaching staff and would likely lead to an improved recruiting class for 2025 and 2026 once recruits see what Smith and the Spartans brought to the field this season. While the FPI rankings aren’t meant to predict playoff teams, the Spartans have a 0.6% chance of making the CFP according to that metric.

Michigan State will face two teams in the top five of the FPI rankings when they face No. 2 Oregon and No. 4 Ohio State in back-to-back weeks.

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