Will Hezbollah declare war on Israel?

Israel is currently waiting for a possible escalation in the north. The USA, Canada, Germany, Ireland, Russia and the Netherlands have asked their citizens in Lebanon to leave the country. Western embassies in Lebanon are exploring the coastal region to locate possible points from which an evacuation by sea could take place. The German Foreign Ministry states dryly in a statement on its website: “A further escalation could also lead to a complete suspension of air traffic from Rafiq Hariri Airport. Leaving Lebanon by air would then no longer be possible.”

The amphibious assault ship USS Wasp has arrived in the eastern Mediterranean via the Strait of Gibraltar. It is capable of evacuating civilians, but the reason for its presence, according to a US official quoted in Newsweek, is “deterrence.” It is designed to make Hezbollah and its Iranian masters think carefully before expanding their current pattern of attacks. It is not clear, however, what role it would play if hostilities were to turn into open war.

Here in Israel, people are quietly making their own arrangements. I spoke this week with a colleague in the northern coastal city of Haifa who writes for a major European newspaper. He has a room where I can stay if war breaks out. I live in Jerusalem. There is an unspoken assumption that the highways heading north could become impassable in the event of war. We will both be covering events from as close as possible. We are talking about power generators and where to find them.

The prospect of war between Israel and Hezbollah is now tangible and real. But for now, it is stuck in a kind of holding pattern. Since October 8, Hezbollah has been firing rockets, missiles and anti-tank guns daily at communities along Israel’s northern border. Israel has responded by destroying Hezbollah targets and infrastructure. By and large, both sides appear to be trying to limit the confrontation to the relatively narrow area divided by the border.

Currently, there is a slight lull in intensity following the massive Hezbollah barrage that followed Israel’s killing of Taleb Abdullah, a senior Hezbollah commander in the south, on June 12. Of course, nothing has been resolved, and the war of words is widening and intensifying. On Friday, Iran’s UN mission on X wrote that if Israel launches a “full-scale military aggression” against Hezbollah, a “devastating war” will follow. The Iranian statement went on to say that “all options, including the full involvement of all resistance fronts, are on the table.”

Iran’s Mehwar al-Muqawama (Axis of Resistance) is of course already active throughout the region to support its affiliated Hamas militia in Gaza. The Ansar Allah (Houthis) in Yemen are continuing their campaign against shipping on the Gulf of Aden/Red Sea waterway. The latest attacks were against four ships on Friday. Shipping volumes on this important trade route have fallen by 90 percent since the attacks began in November. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a convenient title for the Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq, which primarily include Ktaeb Hezbollah, claimed responsibility on Wednesday for shooting down a drone over the southern Israeli city of Eilat.

But although Iran has mobilized its militias across the region, in part against Israeli and Western targets, it is clear that Tehran is not seeking open confrontation with its enemies at this time. Hezbollah leaders describe the campaign it has launched as a “support front” for the main attack, that of Hamas against Israel in Gaza. Iraqi Shiite militias have largely halted their attacks on US targets in Iraq and Syria for now. Their regular attacks on Israel remain largely symbolic for now.

Iran wants to avoid escalation with Israel and the US because its strategy of slowly taking over the region has worked very well over the past 20 years, in parallel with its steady push toward nuclear capabilities. One cannot say that Tehran has “betrayed” its small client, Hamas, in Gaza. On the other hand, Iran’s leaders – shrewd chess players – see no logic in sacrificing their knights and castles to keep a pawn on the board.

Israel and the US, of course, do not want a full-scale war in the region – but therein lies the dilemma. At present, the Iranians have escalated the situation in the entire region to a level of their choosing. They are not prepared to de-escalate as long as the war in Gaza continues. Their flexing of muscles has very serious consequences. Israel’s northern border has become a closed security zone, where 60,000 Israeli refugees live within its own country. The Red Sea has become almost impassable for civilian ships. The current level of Israeli and Western response is clearly far from sufficient to force the Iranians to withdraw troops.

Currently, the Israeli and US leadership faces the dilemma of whether to allow Tehran to carry on a campaign of aggression throughout the region for as long as it wants and with an intensity that it alone determines—provided that this campaign does not escalate into all-out war. Israel’s decision in this regard will determine whether the current phase ends in rapid, violent escalation or in a continuation of the holding pattern followed by a gradual easing of tensions. The latter, since it involves a loss of deterrence and a loss of initiative, will not be in vain. Meanwhile, it is midsummer. The bars and cafes in central Israel are open. The public parks are full of young families with children. The wait continues.