Middle East: US and Europe warn Hezbollah to reduce its attacks on Israel

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S., European and Arab mediators are urging a continuation of the increased cross-border attacks between Israel and The Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon that there is a major war in the Middle East that the world has feared for months. Iran and Israel threatened each other on Saturday with what Iran called a “devastating” war against Hezbollah.

Hopes for a ceasefire in Israel’s Conflict with Hamas in Gaza that would calm attacks by Hezbollah and other Iranian-aligned militias. With talks stalled, American and European diplomats and other politicians are warning Hezbollah – which is much stronger than Hamas but is seen as overconfident – against fighting Hamas. Israel’s military powersay current and former diplomats.

The Americans and Europeans warn the group that it should not count on the United States or anyone else being able to stop Israeli leaders if they decide to execute them. combat-ready plans for an offensive in LebanonAnd Hezbollah should not rely on its fighters to deal with whatever might happen next.

On both sides of the Lebanese border, the escalating attacks between Israel and Hezbollah, one of the best-armed forces in the region, seemed to at least level off this week. While attacks on the border area are still occurring daily, the slight change offered hope of easing the immediate fears that had prompted the United States to send an amphibious assault ship carrying a naval expeditionary force to Join other warships in the area in the hope of preventing a larger conflict.

Despite the lull in hostilities over the past week, said Gerald Feierstein, a former senior U.S. diplomat in the Middle East, “it seems as though the Israelis are still organizing in anticipation that there will be some kind of conflict… a conflict of a very different magnitude.”

The message to Hezbollah is: “Don’t think you are as capable as you think you are,” he said.

A day after Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7 sparked the war in Gaza, Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel and vowed to continue doing so. until a ceasefire is reached. Israel has hit back. The violence has driven tens of thousands of civilians from the border in both countries. The attacks have intensified this month after Israel killed a senior Hezbollah commander and Hezbollah responded with some of its heaviest rocket attacks.

UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths used the word “apocalyptic” to describe a war that could resultBoth Israel and Hezbollah, the dominant force in politically divided Lebanon, have the power to inflict heavy casualties.

“Such a war would be a disaster for Lebanon,” said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin when he recently met with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant at the Pentagon. “Another war between Israel and Hezbollah could easily become a regional warwith devastating consequences for the Middle East.”

Gallant replied: “We are working closely together to reach an agreement, but we also need to discuss preparedness for every possible scenario.”

Analysts assume that other militias in the region allied with Iran would react far more violently than they did to Hamas. Some experts also warn that ideologically motivated militias could flood into the region and join the terrorist militia. The Europeans fear destabilizing refugee flows.

And if it looks like an Israeli offensive in Lebanon “would be seriously detrimental to the Israelis, the United States will intervene,” Feierstein said. “I don’t think they see any alternative to that.”

While Iran, busy with a political transition Although there is currently no indication at home that it wants war, it views Hezbollah as its most strategic partner in the region – far more important than Hamas – and could be drawn into a war.

Tensions escalated when Iran’s UN mission said in a post on X on Saturday that a “devastating” war would ensue if Israel launched a large-scale attack on Lebanon. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz responded by announcing that his country would use “full force” against Hezbollah if it did not stop its attacks.

While the US helped Israel to Barrage of Iranian missiles and drones In April, the US would probably not support Israel as well Defence against a broader Hezbollah attacks, said Army Chief of Staff Brown. It is more difficult to repel the shorter-range rockets that Hezbollah regularly fires across the border, he said.

The Israeli army is overwhelmed after a nearly nine-month war in Gaza, and Hezbollah has an estimated arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles with which to strike anywhere in Israel. Israeli leaders, meanwhile, have vowed that if a full-scale war breaks out in Lebanon, they will unleash scenes of devastation like those in Gaza.

White House senior adviser Amos Hochstein, President Joe Biden’s point man on tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, has so far failed to persuade either side to limit the attacks.

In addition to the Qataris and Egyptians, the French, who as Lebanon’s former colonial power have close ties to Lebanon, and other Europeans are also acting as mediators.

White House officials have blamed Hezbollah for escalating tensions and said it supports Israel’s right to self-defense. The Biden administration has also told Israelis that opening a second front is not in their interest, a point Gallant emphasized during recent talks in Washington with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Austin, CIA Director William Burns, national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Hochstein and others.

“We will continue to help Israel defend itself; that will not change,” said John Kirby, the White House national security spokesman. “But as far as a hypothetical case goes – particularly with regard to the northern boundary line … – we do not want to open a second front and want to see if we can resolve the tensions there through diplomatic processes.”

However, White House officials do not rule out the possibility of a second front in the Middle East conflict.

In talks with Israeli and Lebanese politicians and other regional stakeholders, there is agreement that “a major escalation is in no one’s interest,” a senior Biden administration official said.

The official, who was not authorized to comment publicly on the White House deliberations and spoke on condition of anonymity, was annoyed by the “supposed logic” of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who argued that Israel would see an end to Hezbollah attacks through a ceasefire agreement with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

However, the official also acknowledged that an elusive ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip would go a long way toward easing tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Biden unveiled a three-phase agreement four weeks ago that would lead to an extended ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, but negotiations between Israel and Hamas appear to have stalled. A senior Biden administration official said Saturday that the U.S. had presented new language to mediators in Egypt and Qatar to restart negotiations. The official spoke on condition of anonymity about a plan that the White House has not yet publicly announced.

Even without a ceasefire, there is hope that Hezbollah could reduce its rocket fire at Israel if Israel completes its offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah and does not launch a new major offensive in the Gaza Strip, says Randa Slim of the Middle East Institute.

But without a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, any temporary calm on the Lebanese-Israeli border “is not enough,” Slim said.

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Associated Press writers Abby Sewell in Beirut, Josef Federman in Jerusalem, and Matthew Lee, Tara Copp, Lolita C. Baldor and Aamer Madhani contributed to this report.