Philippine ambassador fears nuclear war with China
The Philippines’ ambassador to Washington has warned of the risk of a US-led nuclear war against China as tensions escalate over the disputed Second Thomas Reef in the South China Sea.
In recent months, clashes have escalated between Chinese coast guard vessels and Filipino ships carrying supplies and materials to the Sierra Madre – a hulk of a Filipino ship that ran aground on the tiny reef and is manned by Filipino troops.
In an article published on Wednesday, Jose Manuel Romualdez told the Financial Times: “It is the most dangerous time… Weapons of mass destruction are a real threat. There are several countries, major powers, that have large arsenals of nuclear weapons.” He warned: “If anything happens, the entire Asian region will be affected.”
When asked how a dispute over a reef could trigger a major conflict, Romualdez referred to the incident that was the immediate trigger of World War I: the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo. “It’s an analogy, but it could happen like that,” he said.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has warned that the killing of a Filipino in clashes near the shoal would cross a “red line.”
Romualdez said China’s actions around the reef were testing the United States’ resolve. “I don’t think China should just dismiss (the US-Philippines military alliance) as a non-serious issue, because it is serious,” he said.
In a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations on Monday, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said the crisis over the Second Thomas Reef was caused by one of many Chinese provocations that “could trigger conflicts that would devastate the global economy.”
The Biden administration has warned Beijing that the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the Sierra Madre and its occupation. Campbell did not specify under what conditions the Philippines or the U.S. would invoke the treaty, but said it was important to “draw very clear public and private boundaries” on what could trigger a military conflict.
While Washington and its allies condemn the Chinese “provocations,” US imperialism has played a key role in turning the South China Sea into a dangerous flashpoint for war with China for more than a decade.
For decades, the United States paid little attention to the long-standing territorial disputes over islets, reefs and other small features in the South China Sea involving China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.
Manila shut down the Sierra Madre, A World War II landing craft was on Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 to bolster its claim to the reef in response to China’s reclamation of Mischief Reef, another part of the disputed Spratly Islands.
In 2010, the Obama administration escalated tensions in the South China Sea as it prepared to announce its “focus on Asia” – a diplomatic, economic and military strategy aimed at countering China and preparing for war against it.
At the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Security Forum in July 2010, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that the US had a “national interest” in ensuring “freedom of navigation” in the South China Sea. In doing so, Clinton effectively declared Washington’s intention to challenge China’s territorial claims.
Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi then stated that by internationalizing the disputes in the South China Sea, the United States was “effectively carrying out an attack on China.”
Since then, the United States has deliberately escalated the situation by sending American warships and fighter jets near Chinese-controlled islands in the South China Sea under the pretext of “freedom of navigation.”
Washington also played a key role in helping the Philippines bring a case against China’s maritime claims before the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). In 2016, the court ruled that China’s historical claims to most of the South China Sea and the existence of territorial waters around tiny areas such as the Second Thomas Reef were non-existent.
While the US and its allies regularly claim that the 2016 ruling against China upheld the Philippines’ claims, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea applies only to maritime matters and not to land disputes. Washington’s hypocritical demands that Beijing abide by international law also ignore the fact that the US itself has not ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
The current confrontation over the Second Thomas Reef comes against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions fueled by the US and NATO war against Russia in Ukraine, US support for Israel’s genocidal war in the Middle East, and the Biden administration’s escalating economic war against China.
Since Obama announced the “focus on Asia” in 2011, the United States has embarked on a comprehensive military buildup and restructuring course throughout the Indo-Pacific, systematically strengthening its military alliances, concluding basing agreements and concluding new military pacts throughout the region.
Romualdez’s warnings of nuclear war are not far-fetched and, if anything, understated. The wars in Europe and the Middle East, as well as the ruthless confrontation with China led by the US, are fronts in a global conflict between nuclear powers. Driven by the deepening global crisis of capitalism, US imperialism is desperately trying to secure its global hegemony by any means, including military ones.
The Marcos regime in the Philippines is a willing accomplice of the Biden administration in its reckless provocations against China in the South China Sea. Since taking office, Marcos has expanded the US military presence in the Philippines with four new bases and greatly expanded joint military exercises with the US, including in the South China Sea.
Marcos also revoked the agreement with China made by his predecessor, President Rodrigo Duterte, who had agreed to maintain the status quo in the South China Sea while encouraging Chinese trade and investment with the Philippines. In the case of the Second Thomas Reef, this “gentlemen’s agreement” meant that the Philippines would not reinforce or fortify the Sierra Madre.
China justified its blockade of the sandbar by saying that the Philippines was sending construction materials in violation of the agreement, which the Marcos government has vehemently and repeatedly denied. China claimed that its ships were merely supplying the few marines in the Sierra Madre with food and other essential goods.
However, in an interview last week, Philippine Ambassador Romualdez acknowledged that construction work had taken place, claiming it was not about “strengthening” the ship but rather about making necessary repairs. “We are just doing a humanitarian act by giving these people a proper place because they are stationed there,” he said.
In contrast to Romualdez, who Financial Times noted that “people familiar with the situation said Manila had secretly reinforced the ship to extend its lifespan.” Such moves, which are sure to escalate tensions with China, confirm in practice what Marcos said last year regarding Dutarte’s agreement with China: “I am not aware of any such agreement. If there was one, I revoke it with immediate effect.”
Romualdez has declared the South China Sea clashes with Beijing to be more dangerous than the situation in the Taiwan Strait – no doubt to demand more US military aid to the Philippines. But since 2011, US imperialism has turned the entire region into a powder keg, deliberately stoking tensions with China not only over the South China Sea and Taiwan, but also over the East China Sea, North Korea and India’s disputed borders with China.
Given the current acute geopolitical crises, any of these explosive flashpoints could escalate into a Zarejevo-like incident, triggering a catastrophic war across Asia and the world.
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