Lebanon and Israel: One mistake could lead to a war that could devastate both countries

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One wrong move could send Israel and Hezbollah into a devastating war that neither wants, experts and security officials said. The national.

Both sides have increased their rocket fire and air strikes for weeks, raising fears that the conflict could escalate into a full-scale war.

According to a Lebanese politician allied with Hezbollah, the war has already begun.

“If you compare the beginning with today, it is a war. The Israelis … they are everywhere. Their escalation shows that they want to involve Lebanon in a war,” he said. The national.

The Israeli military and Hezbollah have huge arsenals of weapons that would dwarf the damage of their last war in 2006.

Hezbollah is believed to have up to 150,000 rockets. According to some estimates, this is enough to fire up to 1,500 rockets a day. In 2006, the number was around 15,000.

Israel, meanwhile, has one of the largest air forces in the world. It is responsible for the devastation of large parts of the Gaza Strip. According to local health authorities, almost 37,400 Palestinians have been killed there since the war began on October 7.

The trigger was Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel in which 1,200 people were killed.

Karim El Mufti, professor of international relations at Sciences Po Paris, said: “The war of 2006 is small compared to what this war is and what it could become.”

The months-long war this year, sparked by a cross-border attack by Hezbollah, left more than 1,200 people dead in Lebanon and caused about five billion dollars in damage to the country.

In Israel, about 120 Israeli soldiers and 40 civilians were killed, while nearly half a million Israelis and one million Lebanese were displaced.

The sharp increase in attacks in recent weeks has raised fears that there could be a return to 2006 – only worse.

Goals

Israel wants to eliminate the security threat posed by Hezbollah so that some 60,000 displaced people can return to their homes near the border. The Lebanese armed movement, however, has said it will not stop its attacks until Israel ends its bombing of the Gaza Strip.

The country said it did not want a full-scale war but was prepared for it.

The Hezbollah-affiliated politician said Lebanon demands that Israel comply with UN Resolution 1701, which ended the war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006 – even though it has never been fully implemented in the 18 years since then.

Although Lebanon and Israel are technically enemies and the Lebanese government has repeatedly criticized Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip, Beirut has said it does not want war but has little control over Hezbollah.

Lebanon accuses Israel of regularly violating the provisions of Resolution 1701 – be it by attacking Israel, invading its territory or occupying areas claimed by Beirut.

“(The Israelis) are constantly escalating, not just at the border,” the official said. “They are targeting all of Lebanon. It is clear that the Israelis want to involve Lebanon in this war. Lebanon does not want this war.”

On the other hand, Israel would point out that UN Security Council Resolution 1701 also calls for the disarmament of non-state militias – an allusion to Hezbollah.

Israel has announced that it will push back Hezbollah north of the Litani River, despite the armed group putting up determined resistance.

Potential for a ceasefire

The threat of escalation has prompted foreign powers, including the United States and France, to engage in diplomatic efforts to avoid war.

US envoy Amos Hochstein visited Lebanon and Israel this week and said a solution was both “feasible” and “urgently” needed.

He also said the US ceasefire proposal for Gaza “provides an opportunity to end the conflict” in the Israeli-Lebanese border area.

The United States is urging Israel and Hamas to formally accept the ceasefire agreement passed by UN Security Council members, which would allow for a temporary six-week ceasefire.

Hezbollah said it would not stop its attacks until a ceasefire was reached in Gaza.

The politician, who is close to Hezbollah, also accused Israel of refusing to comply with the ceasefire and repeated the accusation often made against Benjamin Netanyahu that the Israeli prime minister is trying to extend his term in office by attacking Lebanon.

Israel has not officially expressed its support for the ceasefire proposal. Hamas has sent positive signals and at the same time submitted requests for changes.

“We have not heard from Netanyahu or (Israeli Defense Minister Yoav) Gallant that they have agreed,” the Lebanese official said.

“If you look at the war strategy in modern history, this is one of the most controlled escalations ever,” said Prof. El Mufti The national.

“But Pandora’s box has been opened in Gaza, and if this front is not closed, there is a risk of an explosion between Hezbollah and Israel.”

While a ceasefire in Gaza is seen as the best way to ease tensions on the Lebanese border, some experts warn that long-standing tensions between Hezbollah and Israel would remain regardless.

War already?

The tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border who have been driven from their homes might say that the war has already begun.

Both sides have increased the scale and intensity of their attacks, with Hezbollah using increasingly sophisticated weapons and Israel even striking on Lebanon’s northern border, which lies across the country from Syria.

The Lebanese official said the Israeli escalation showed that Israel wanted “Lebanon to be drawn into a war.”

UN officials in Lebanon recently said the risk of miscalculation remains high – a view echoed elsewhere in the region.

“A mistake is when a rocket hits a bus full of schoolchildren. That is World War III and World War IV in one,” says Lior Shelef, an Israeli army reservist who lives in Kibbutz Snir, a few kilometers from the Lebanese border.

“It’s about what will happen if that one mistake happens, and eventually it will happen. It’s just a question of when.”

“When the game was played in the buffer zone in Lebanon, we were able to ensure that we did not make any mistakes on our side. And if they make mistakes, they will have to face the consequences.”

“The problem is that a mistake made here today can be serious. And the problem is that it will be very difficult for us to convince people to come back and live here.”

While the risk of miscalculation remains high, Professor El Mufti said there are too many parameters to consider to say what would be the straw that broke the camel’s back.

“This is completely new for Israel. They have no solutions and are unable to think outside the box,” he added.

“They only know violent solutions, which will not work in this case.” For this reason, “the Israelis will be the first to lose control, given how Hezbollah has behaved throughout the conflict.”

“I don’t think Hezbollah is overreacting because it has more to lose than the Israelis,” said Professor El Mufti.

Despite losing around 300 fighters, Hezbollah has pursued a policy of restraint since October 8, when it launched its first attack on Israeli positions.

Meanwhile, Israel is more likely to become the catalyst for a full-scale war “because it has nothing to lose,” said Professor El Mufti.

“They have already crossed so many boundaries in their relationship with the United States and their global perception, breaking away from international law, the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court … and so far they have gotten away with it.”

“They avoid civilian targets, demonstrating that they adhere to international law, even though they are not internationally recognized as resistance fighters, except by their allies and the Lebanese state.”

Thanks to strong Iranian support, Hezbollah is also seeking to restore its deterrent power. On Tuesday, the group released drone footage deep inside Israel, over the port city of Haifa and nearby towns.

The drone had filmed Israeli military and civilian sites, serving as a stark reminder that the group is capable of causing far greater damage in Israel than it did in 2006 – but that it has so far held back.

Updated: June 19, 2024, 6:56 p.m.