The war between Israel and Hezbollah will be expensive

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has once again brought the Middle East to the brink of all-out war. Since October 2023, when the Palestine-Israel conflict flared up again, the border between Israel and Lebanon has become a flashpoint for military clashes. Hezbollah responded to Israel’s war in Gaza by increasing attacks on Israeli military positions. In response, Israel has carried out significant artillery and air strikes on Hezbollah’s infrastructure in southern Lebanon. As a result, hundreds of thousands of people on the Israeli and Lebanese sides have been forced to flee their homes.

This situation is unsustainable, especially for Israel. Israel has lost on military, diplomatic, legal and global public fronts due to its unjust war in Gaza. Many experts say that Israel’s strategy to destroy Hamas is unlikely to achieve its military goal. On the diplomatic front, the situation does not seem to be in Israel’s favor. On the legal front, Israel is considered a genocidal state in Gaza and is on the verge of being convicted of war crimes. In the eyes of the international community, it is already condemned. Now, by targeting Lebanon, Israel is trying to expand the war and win back allies who have abandoned it.

This time, however, Israel must realize that its strategic calculations will come at a higher price. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is closely intertwined with broader regional dynamics and the interests of various stakeholders. Israel should be clear that the war against Hezbollah will not be a war like the war against Hamas in Gaza. It is also wrong for Israel to believe that this time it will be a war like the one in 2006. More importantly, Israel’s war strategy against Hamas was unrealistic and did not produce the desired result. Hezbollah is a different case, and Israel’s calculated war strategy against Lebanon will not work either. From a regional geopolitical perspective, a war against Hezbollah would turn the countries of the region even more against Tel Aviv. Hezbollah will therefore be a formidable military player for Israel, and this time the war will be much more costly than the war in Gaza.

Iran factor

The first and most important strategic factor in the potential conflict is Iran’s approach to Israel’s war against Hezbollah. Iran’s approach toward Hezbollah differs from that of Hamas. Iran’s support of Hezbollah is part of a broader regional strategy to gain influence in the Middle East and counter Israel’s power. This proxy dynamic exacerbates the conflict, as any tension between Israel and Hezbollah will have far-reaching implications for military escalation between Iran and Israel. Iran has significantly increased Hezbollah’s military capacity in recent years through financial support, modern weapons, and training. This support is part of Iran’s strategy to establish a strong foothold in Lebanon and use Hezbollah as a deterrent against Israel. More importantly, Iran views Hezbollah as a crucial component of the “Axis of Resistance” in the Middle East, which includes various Shiite militias that align with Tehran’s strategic goals.

By supporting Hezbollah, Iran aims to demonstrate power and influence in the Levant. This strategic maneuver allows Iran to exert pressure on Israel from Lebanon, creating a second front that can be used in times of conflict. Iran’s support for Hezbollah also strengthens Tehran’s position as a regional actor to counterbalance US and Israeli influence in the region. Iran’s presence in Syria and its mobilization of Shiite militants is another strategic lever for Iran. The process Iran is going through and the fear of weakening Hezbollah in a potential war could prompt Tehran to take a tougher stance against Israel.

Hezbollah’s military capacity

Hezbollah’s military capacity is another factor Israel should consider. Hezbollah significantly increased its military capacity following its involvement in the Syrian civil war. This participation gave Hezbollah both battlefield experience and modern weaponry, making it a formidable player in the region. Hezbollah fighters fought in various cities and regions of Syria, gaining extensive experience in various combat environments, including urban warfare and guerrilla tactics. Hezbollah has also used the Syrian conflict to train new fighters and expand its ranks.

Hezbollah has significantly improved its arsenal during and since the Syrian conflict. The group’s access to modern weapons, often supplied by Iran, has enhanced its offensive and defensive capabilities. Hezbollah is considered “a militia trained like an army and equipped like a state.” Hezbollah is estimated to possess tens of thousands of rockets and missiles, including short-, medium-, and long-range systems. Most notably, the Fateh-110 and Zelzal-2 rockets, which can penetrate deep into Israeli territory. The group has also acquired precision-guided munitions, increasing the accuracy and lethality of its attacks. Hezbollah’s arsenal also includes modern anti-aircraft systems and guided anti-tank missiles (ATGMs). The group has improved its ability to counter Israeli tanks and aircraft by acquiring man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) and sophisticated ATGMs such as the Kornet. During the 2006 Lebanon War, Hezbollah successfully destroyed about 50 Israeli Merkava tanks. More importantly, Hezbollah has developed a strong drone capability, with a variety of unmanned aerial vehicles used for reconnaissance and strike missions. The drone capability includes locally produced and Iranian-supplied models capable of surveillance and precision strikes.

Hezbollah’s military capabilities also need to be reviewed in light of increased Iranian military support for Hezbollah since October 7. According to media reports, Hezbollah has been supplied with Iranian short-range missiles, the Fateh-110, and their Syrian counterpart, the M-600, as well as Falaq missiles, Russian Kornet anti-tank missiles and the newly developed Burkan improvised rocket-launched weapons.

In terms of combat tactics, Hezbollah has developed hybrid warfare tactics that combine conventional military operations with guerrilla warfare and irregular tactics. This approach allows the organization to exploit the weaknesses of conventional armies such as Israel’s and sustain protracted conflicts. The war in Syria was an exceptional case for Hezbollah to reshape its war tactics, which greatly changed Hezbollah’s combat readiness.

Regional, international dynamics

Israel’s war against Hezbollah could also escalate the regional conflict and impose higher costs on Israel and its allies. The continuation of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could therefore develop in several ways, each with important geopolitical consequences and each could open the door to a chaotic period in the region.

First, should the conflict escalate into a full-scale war, Lebanon is likely to suffer devastating consequences and further economic and political instability. Such a conflict could further destabilize the region by involving regional actors. Iranian involvement could lead to larger regional conflicts, especially given the uncertainties in Iranian politics in the post-Raisi era. A larger conflict would also destabilize the Middle East region and have far-reaching consequences for regional security. Already fragile countries such as Syria and Iraq could face spillover effects leading to further chaos.

Stability in the Mediterranean is also at risk. “The enemy knows that what awaits them in the Mediterranean is also very important,” said Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. “The (Greek) Cypriot (administrative) government should be warned that opening its airports and bases to the enemy to attack Lebanon means that it has become part of the war,” Nasrallah said. The importance of the island of Cyprus is also a major security concern for Turkey, as Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has criticized Israel’s military and intelligence activities on the island. Therefore, Israel’s war against Hezbollah will be a cause of concern for countries in the region and the EU will be part of the conflict.

Second, a war against Hezbollah would undermine maritime security in the region due to its military capacity. Considering how the Houthis have been destabilizing maritime security since October 2023, Hezbollah has more leverage to destabilize the Mediterranean. Given the dynamics of energy geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean, a full-scale Israeli attack on Hezbollah would bring new tensions and negatively affect energy supplies, especially energy markets.

Another price of a war between Israel and Hezbollah is the possibility of a complete collapse of the rules-based structure of the international system. Given the devastation Israel’s genocidal war has caused in Gaza, a new war would confirm that international governance mechanisms are no longer fully functional. This could set an example for other aggressor states and pave the way for wider conflicts. As Türkiye has repeatedly stated since October 2023, if Israel’s war on Gaza is not ended, a larger and more comprehensive war in the region is inevitable.

Because of the genocide that Israel has caused in Gaza and the crisis from which it cannot get out, it has become an actor that threatens the stability of the entire region. The fact that Western actors, especially the Biden administration, ignore this danger can lead to the outbreak of full-scale conflicts that will be much more difficult to prevent. The only way to stop Israel is to bring it back to the ground of rational state responsibility and hold it accountable for its actions in Gaza.