Tomorrow is zero hour: Will the mediation committee approve the American Airlines flight attendants’ strike in its rare Saturday meeting?

June 28, 2024

Tomorrow is zero hour: Will the mediation committee approve the American Airlines flight attendants’ strike in its rare Saturday meeting?

from Gary Leff on 28 June 2024

The National Mediation Board has called American Airlines and the flight attendants’ union to meet in Washington DC this Saturday after what the union described as a breakdown in negotiations just over a week ago.

The union sent the following message to cabin crew today:

Friday, June 28, 2024
Negotiation Update #63

APFA and AA appointed to Washington, DC

This morning, National Mediation Board (NMB) board members asked the heads of the APFA and AA negotiating committees to return to Washington, DC, for a meeting tomorrow (Saturday, June 29, 2024). After weeks of intense mediation attempts broke down last week, your APFA negotiating team has continued to aggressively advance our position that American Airlines flight attendants need a contract that addresses our concerns. It is long past time for American Airlines management to end these negotiations and agree to the contract we deserve.

We will provide further information after this meeting.

Flight attendants have not received a salary increase since January 1, 2019. Their contract became amendable four and a half years ago. The union told its members that they should expect strikes. They sent strike manuals to the crew:

Inside, they warn the crew not to continue working if the union calls for a strike:

American appears to have increased its financial offer during negotiations. A mediation committee blackout, which the union has hurt rather than obeyed, means the exact details of the company’s offer remain unconfirmed.

However, a mediation panel that does not want to put flight attendants on strike, especially before the presidential election, could well see a new offer this month as proof that negotiations have not yet reached an impasse.

Because the majority of the conciliation committee was appointed by the president and has the power to delay any strike, he will bear the consequences for both the economy and the disadvantaged voters if the union goes on strike. This would also dramatically increase airfares as demand would crowd out the remaining seats at Delta, Southwest and United.
This could cost President Biden re-election, and he is in a difficult position anyway, as betting markets currently show a trend toward former President Trump in all potential swing states except Maine.
President Biden does not want to have to make the decision to postpone a strike himself, as it would cost him the support of unions. In the much-discussed scenario in which he resigns to make way for Vice President Kamala Harris’ candidacy, she would be able to avoid going against the unions while remaining confident of securing her nomination in late August.

Given the president’s weak poll numbers, is the House Committee more or less likely to send flight attendants on strike? On the one hand, they may be less interested in protecting the president. On the other hand, it could ultimately result in them losing votes in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona — and Democrats are also trying to win in each of the two houses of Congress. Of course, House Committee members want to be appointed to their positions by future Democratic presidents.

I have no inside information about the mediation panel’s intentions for Saturday’s talks. That seems highly unusual. Could they bring the parties to Washington to lock them in a room until they cross the finish line with an agreement? Could they tell the parties in person that they will declare an impasse — or not — and thus whether to initiate a 30-day cooling-off period that is necessary before any strike?