USA: War between Israel and Hezbollah is getting closer
Latest developments
Escalating clashes on the Lebanese border could lead to a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah in the coming weeks if Hamas and Israel fail to reach a ceasefire. Politico was reported on June 27. Citing U.S. intelligence officials who spoke on condition of anonymity, the report said the risk of war on the Lebanese front is “higher now than at any time in recent weeks.” In support of its Hamas ally, Hezbollah has launched rocket, drone and missile attacks on Israel following the October 7 terrorist attack.
The report stressed that the US assessment of the deteriorating situation was “somewhat more conservative” than the “assessment coming from parts of Europe” that “war could break out within days”. Two of the senior US officials interviewed “stressed that it was unclear when exactly the war could begin, but noted that Israel was trying to quickly rebuild its supplies and troop capacity,” Politico The intelligence sources also estimated that “the trigger for war — for example, a major attack by either side — is likely to come without warning.” Hezbollah has stepped up its attacks on Israel in recent weeks. According to a report published on June 2 by the Alma Research and Education Center, the Iran-backed terrorist organization launched 95 anti-tank missile attacks in May, compared to 50 attacks in April, and there were 85 infiltration incidents involving unmanned aerial vehicles in May, compared to 42 in April.
Expert analysis
“The more public pressure the Biden administration puts on Israel and the more the White House says it wants to avoid escalation, the more aggressive we should expect Tehran and Hezbollah to behave. If Biden seeks regional security and a better peace, he must give Israel the weapons it needs and save suggestions and criticism of Israel for private meetings.” — Bradley BowmanSenior Director of the FDD’s Center for Military and Political Power
“Desperation for a ceasefire with Hamas, fear of Hezbollah and accommodation with Iran are the main drivers of escalation on all fronts. The path to peace does not lie in capitulation to Hamas, but in unconditional support for Israel and maximum pressure on Hamas, its terrorist allies and state sponsors.” — Richard GoldbergSenior Advisor to the FDD
“War is getting closer, not only because of the increasing lethality and frequency of Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel, but also because of the failure of diplomatic efforts to create a sustainable environment that allows displaced citizens to return to their homes. Israel may not want war right now, but it could be its only option if Hezbollah continues its attacks and does not withdraw its troops from the border and north of the Litani River.” — Ahmad SharawiFDD Research Analyst
USA seeks “diplomatic solution” between Israel and Hezbollah, supports Israel
After meetings with U.S. officials in Washington, DC, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reiterated on June 27 that Israel “does not want war, but is preparing for any scenario. Hezbollah is well aware that if war does occur in Lebanon, we can inflict massive damage.” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Gallant on June 25 to discuss “efforts to de-escalate tensions along the Israeli-Lebanese border” and “work together to counter Iranian and Iranian-backed attacks on Israel and destabilizing activities throughout the Middle East.” Austin also underscored America’s “ironclad” support for Israel in the face of Hezbollah provocations.
The Biden administration is seeking a “diplomatic solution” to de-escalate the Israel-Lebanon border that would allow more than 60,000 residents of northern Israel and nearly 100,000 Lebanese citizens displaced by the escalating clashes to return to their homes. White House national communications adviser John Kirby stressed on June 26: “We don’t want a second front to be opened, period… so we are working diplomatically to prevent that… and of course we will continue to help Israel defend itself; that will not change.” On June 27, the U.S. State Department issued a travel advisory urging U.S. citizens to reconsider travel to Lebanon because “the security situation remains complex and can change rapidly.”
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“The grave consequences of the UN failure in Lebanon”, by Bradley Bowman and Cameron McMillan
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