Report: Israel-Hezbollah war could break out without warning within weeks if no agreement is reached

According to a report by Politico, US intelligence indicates that a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is likely to break out “in the next few weeks” if a ceasefire is not reached in Gaza.

The report says the US assessment is more conservative than intelligence-based predictions by some European countries that war could break out within days.

The Politico article follows reporting by the Middle East Eye last week that the US had signaled to Hezbollah through Lebanese intermediaries that it would support an Israeli offensive against the group in the coming weeks.

Amos Hochstein told Lebanese officials that Israel expects about five more weeks of heavy fighting in Gaza and will then pause its main offensive in the enclave. However, Israel will continue to target senior Hamas officials and carry out attacks to free hostages.

Hochstein said the aforementioned ceasefire in fighting in the Gaza Strip gives Hezbollah and Israel the opportunity to end their conflict and begin negotiations, with or without a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, according to the Arab official, who spoke to MEE on condition of anonymity.

Israel says it has drawn up plans for a limited offensive against Hezbollah. Hezbollah has also said it is prepared for war and has a list of Israeli targets in mind, including in the Mediterranean.

However, Politico reported that the US believes the war is likely to start with miscalculations on both sides. Citing US officials, Politico said that “the trigger for war — such as a major attack by either side — is likely to come without warning.”

US officials fear Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah could affect Russia

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During a visit to the United States on Monday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Israel would prefer a diplomatic solution to the conflict with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said.

MEE reported on Friday that US officials were concerned that an Israeli offensive against Hezbollah could further infuriate Iran’s allies in the region and cement Tehran’s military cooperation with Russia.

Fears that an Israeli ground attack on Hezbollah could have “secondary” and “tertiary” effects, as current and former US officials described to Middle East Eye, are fuelled by US intelligence reports that Russia is considering increasing its support for Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance”.

There have been almost daily exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah since October 8, but the conflict escalated in June after Israel killed Taleb Sami Abdullah, one of Hezbollah’s highest-ranking members.

The group responded by firing hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel.