Could Michigan win another national championship? The blue-chip ratio tells us the Wolverines have a chance

The Michigan Wolverines are the defending national champions, but this year’s team looks different compared to Team 144. Not many predict the Wolverines will be able to defend their title in 2024, but according to Blue-Chip Ratio (BCR), the low confidence in Michigan is not due to a lack of talent on the roster.

It’s been around for more than 10 years, but if you’re still getting familiar with the BCR, here’s Bud Elliot’s description in an article on Tuesday:

If a team’s BCR is above 50 percent, they essentially have enough top-tier talent to compete with the best teams in college football.

This year, Michigan’s BCR is 56 percent, up two percent from last season. With the transfer portal in mind, the team is back at 54 percent this season.

With most of the talk this offseason revolving around Michigan’s departures to the NFL, it may seem surprising that the Wolverines still have enough four- and five-star talent to replace the departed players. According to 247Sports’ composite rankings, the Wolverines have signed 26 players in the 2024 recruiting class. Michigan missed out on some five-star players, but was able to sign 17 four-star and nine three-star players.

Quarterback Jadyn Davis and running back Jordan Marshall are two of the bigger names on the roster, and edge Dominic Nichols has also received some early attention, among other players.

That’s the good news when looking at preseason BCR. Here’s the not-so-good news – Michigan will face at least four teams with higher BCRs. That includes top-ranked Ohio State (90 percent), Oregon (76 percent), Texas (72 percent) and USC (59 percent). The road to the College Football Playoff means the Wolverines will have to beat at least one of those teams, if not two, in addition to every other team on the schedule.

When adjusted for transfers, all teams have a lower BCR. Ohio State drops to 86 percent, Oregon to 71 percent, Texas to 71 percent and USC to 54 percent. Interestingly, Michigan has the smallest drop when transfers are taken into account, and that seems to suggest that the team has been strategic in selecting players in the transfer portal.

Some people write off the Wolverines in 2024, but this metric shows they still have a roster capable of competing for another national championship.