In northern Israel: empty villages and rumors of war in Lebanon

Generally

This image from northern Israel shows smoke rising during the Israeli bombardment of southern Lebanon on June 25, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP) (Photo by JACK GUEZ/AFP via Getty Images)

Kiryat Shmona — On October 20, a week and a half after Hamas’ attack on Israel, 24,000 residents were evacuated from the town of Kiryat Shmona on the northern border with Lebanon. And they were not the only ones: Two dozen smaller communities were also evacuated due to fears that Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed terrorist group, could launch an attack similar to Hamas’.

In total, 80,000 people left their homes. Today, around 50,000 are still evacuated, living in Israeli hotels or other communities and receiving state support – but are not sure if and when they will ever feel safe enough to return home. And the events of the last few weeks have hardly brightened the mood.

Breaking Defense was in the region on June 23 and 24, speaking to Israel Defense Forces officers, experts and community security officials. There is a consensus that a conflict with Hezbollah is more realistic now than at any time since the October 7 attacks. And there is a consensus that such a conflict would be more difficult than the operation in Gaza.

The larger context of developments in the north can be seen in recent talks in Washington. Israel is facing what Defense Minister Yoav Gallant called a “turning point” this week as he led a large delegation from his ministry to Washington for talks.

The term “crossroads” refers to Israel’s eight-month war in Gaza becoming a less intense conflict, and the prospect of the war shifting to the northern border and Hezbollah – which in turn could lead to a regional conflict with Iran. In a sign of how serious the situation is, Gallant has held meetings with presidential advisers Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk, as well as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

“In the north, we are committed to building security — changing the reality on the ground and bringing our communities home safely,” Gallant said in Washington. “We are working closely together to reach an agreement, but we also need to talk about preparedness for every possible scenario. The greatest threat to the future of the world is Iran. And we are running out of time,” Gallant said.

FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BORDER: In southern Lebanon, empty villages, destroyed crops and fear of what comes next

In other words, after eight months of war in Gaza, the focus is now on Lebanon and stopping Hezbollah’s attacks. However, Hezbollah is a much stronger and more entrenched force than Hamas, and an attack on Lebanese territory would likely provoke a response from the Lebanese government and political condemnation abroad – all factors that Israel must weigh in planning its next steps.

However, when walking around the area, it is easy to understand why Hezbollah cannot simply be allowed to carry out its actions with impunity.

Hezbollah has launched more than 5,000 rocket, missile and drone attacks on Israel since October 7. Although there have been periods of relative calm, attacks have increased significantly in recent weeks. Multiple attacks a day are now normal, whether with rockets, anti-tank missiles or drones, the latter of which appear to be becoming increasingly more precise. In turn, Israel is carrying out its own attacks, hitting Hezbollah launch bases and alleged terrorist infrastructure in areas of southern Lebanon. The attacks have caused major fires on both sides of the border and destroyed crops that villagers of all nationalities depend on.

Even outside the evacuation area, where life has continued largely as normal, the effects of the attacks across the Lebanese border are clearly felt. The north of Galilee is normally a center of tourism, and people live in small huts, the so-called Tzimurs in Hebrew. These local shops are all closed now.

Even in areas away from the front line, normal activities such as hiking are no longer possible for families as Hezbollah has increased its attacks deeper into Israel. Videos on the Internet shows A bus that came under fire, for example, has prevented people from sending their children on school trips. Civilian life is unlikely to resume until the Israeli government assures residents that there is an agreement to withdraw Hezbollah from the border, or until a military operation is launched.

Israeli communities along the border are now mostly evacuated. However, some people, mostly middle-aged and older men, have returned. Some of the men serve as reservists in those communities’ local security teams, an organizational structure that has existed in one form or another since Israel’s early days. After October 7, the men were drafted as reservists and issued uniforms and rifles. They were also entrusted with the task of training new members, so most communities have a platoon-strength force of these soldiers. The men serve only in their community and usually guard the community gate, a local, small tripwire as part of the much larger force of IDF units protecting the border.

Metulla, Israel’s northernmost town, is located at the top of the Huleh Valley, north of Kiryat Shmona. Before the war, it was possible to hike along a national park trail that follows a stream fed by a natural spring and offers clear views of Lebanon – and of Hezbollah flags that could be seen in the distance. Today, Metulla is a major Hezbollah target. On the evening of June 23, anti-tank missiles fired by Hezbollah injured two people; three days later, it fired another five anti-tank missiles at the town.

Israel’s Home Front Command, which is tasked with protecting the local population, is trying to meet this challenge by setting up armored shelters in towns and near bus stops. But a drive through the Galilee near the border shows that while new shelters have been built, they are not enough to secure most areas. Communities like Kiryat Shmona are so close to the border that people have only about 10 seconds to find shelter, according to a local security official. Because of the proximity of the threat, Iron Dome interceptors are often launched before the sirens sound.

This means that any fighting that breaks out will be fierce and will likely be accompanied by waves of attacks on Israel itself.

The Israel Defense Forces are currently deployed in two regional divisions, the 91st on the Lebanese border and the 210th in the Golan Heights on the Syrian border. The Israel Defense Forces have also created a new mountain brigade to defend the Dov and Hermon mountains, two mountains that form a kind of hinge on the Lebanese-Syrian border at the junction of the 91st and 210th. The front-line divisions are supported by troops from the 36th Division and the 146th Reserve Division. The 36th Division is normally stationed in the north and consists of troops familiar with the area, such as the Golani Infantry and the 188th Armored Brigade. After fighting in Gaza between October and December, these units withdrew north again.

The Northern Command of the Israel Defense Forces in the mountain town of Safed, several kilometers from the border with Lebanon, is a hive of activity. Soldiers and officers of the Israel Defense Forces are aware of the challenges ahead, but are highly motivated. Lieutenant Colonel Eran Salmon, commander of the Israeli home front, compared the current crisis to Israel’s “second war of independence.”