Can the Israeli government be expected to change during a war or remain the same? – Israel News
On Wednesday, one day after the Supreme Court announced its landmark ruling on conscription for Haredim, the Knesset was a hive of activity.
“It’s not scientific, but I’ve been in the Knesset since morning, the building is shaking – everyone is arguing with everyone else,” said Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid. “At this point, the Knesset suddenly realizes that it is about to fall apart.”
Lapid is obviously not a neutral oracle. He is interested in the dissolution of the Knesset and new elections, and has been working tirelessly toward that goal since the moment he was sworn in on December 29, 2022. His words could therefore rightly be dismissed as wishful thinking on the part of the opposition leader.
But they are not.
Something is afoot. You could sense it when National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz left the government earlier this month. You could sense it when a few Likud lawmakers broke ranks last week and threatened to vote against the “rabbi law.” And you could sense it this week in the coalition’s confused efforts to somehow circumvent the Supreme Court’s ruling on the bill: to draft a bill that would meet the court’s demand for conscription for Haredim while keeping the ultra-Orthodox parties in the coalition.
The feeling that new elections are imminent is one of the reasons why there is increasing talk about the formation of a new right-wing party – a Likud B, so to speak. This would consist of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Israel Beitenu chairman Avigdor Lieberman, New Hope – The National Right chairman Gideon Sa’ar and former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen.
According to two television polls conducted this week, the party would dominate: Channel 12 would have 25 seats, Channel 13 34. In both cases, it would be the largest party in the country and would have the edge in forming a coalition and crowning a new prime minister.
As strategy and policy consultant Roni Rimon said, people warm up on the sidelines. And you only warm up on the sidelines if you believe your part of the game is about to begin.
RIMON, a partner at the public relations firm Rimon Cohen & Co, which has advised numerous politicians over the years, said that “groundbreaking changes” do not come along too often, but this party – which is taking advantage of the country’s shift to the right while reflecting deep dissatisfaction with Likud’s governance and an aversion to extremes – could be just such a turning point that could shake up the country’s political map.
If so, then this is another way—in addition to changing the country’s basic security doctrines and increasing the draft of Haredim—that October 7 will leave a lasting mark on Israel: by reorganizing the political chessboard. If this new framework does come to fruition, it could end Likud’s nearly four-decade dominance of Israeli politics, to the same extent that the failures of the Yom Kippur War and rampant corruption led Likud to end Labor’s political dominance in 1977.
However, the names at the top of this list – Bennett, Lieberman, Sa’ar, Cohen – are all household names, meaning they have been around for a long time and are part of the political, defense and intelligence establishment that failed so miserably on October 7.
What has fallen by the wayside in recent months are the voices that were heard again and again in the immediate aftermath of October 7, calling for a “clean break.” Voices that called for new leadership – people who are neither tainted by the colossal mistakes of October 7, nor share responsibility for the divisions that brought about that catastrophe.
It is unrealistic to expect a completely new government
But a “clear victory” is unrealistic and pure wishful thinking, says Rimon.
“At the end of the day,” he explained, “voters are choosing from what is available, not what is not available. Look at the election in the United States. Is the best that 330 million Americans can come up with a choice between (President Joe) Biden and (Donald) Trump? No, there are more talented people in the United States than those two, but those two are the two on the table and you are choosing between a and b. You are choosing between what is, not what is not. The same thing is going to happen here.”
But wars produce heroes, and this war has its fair share: reservists who demonstrated immense courage in battle, grieving families who showed extraordinary grace, ordinary citizens who rose to the occasion and gave of themselves and their time in extraordinary ways.
Many of these people have burst onto the country’s stage unwittingly – Fauda star Idan Amedi is one example; Iris Haim, whose kidnapped son was accidentally killed by the Israeli army as she tried to escape his Hamas captors, is another – and they have spoken in a way that has touched many hearts, preaching a message of unity. Couldn’t they, or others like them, Rimon is asked, step up and form a new political framework that would represent something entirely new – new wine in new wineskins, rather than old wine in new bottles?
“I think these are people who can join existing structures, but I don’t think they are strong enough to lead completely new structures on their own,” he said.
Rimon said that while “it is theoretically possible that someone could start something new – a party centered around reservists or hostages – on its most successful day it could clear the hurdle (3.25% of the vote) and win a few seats. But that will not change anything. This Likud B could change something.”
This potential party, as well as the existing parties, would be happy to welcome these new faces into their ranks, he predicted. But even then, they would not influence the election because Israelis – when they vote for a party – in most cases vote for the top candidate and not for candidates ranked 10th, 15th or 25th on the party list.
Although there are isolated rumors about the emergence of new political structures – be it a party of business leaders, reservists or the families of survivors – nothing significant has emerged so far.
Moshe Klughaft, a political-strategic adviser, Channel 12 commentator and former adviser to Prime Ministers Benjamin Netanyahu and Bennett, said this was to be expected.
Although the country is hungry for new leaders with a new message and a new style, politics, he said, “is not a romantic hobby. It is a tough profession with rules written in blood, and only actors who are willing to acknowledge this will eventually reach positions of real influence.”
“For a new party to enter the Knesset, it must build a well-oiled machine that knows how to work in the political space, logistically and financially, with clear leadership, a sharp program and a clear position on the question ‘Do you want to sit with Netanyahu?’ – and that is a difficult, if not almost impossible, task.”
Klughaft said that while there is enormous public frustration with the government – as evidenced by the fact that the current coalition is failing to win more than 50 seats in all polls – establishing a new, successful party would be an arduous task.
While the Yom Kippur War helped catapult the Democratic Movement for Change (DASH) party – a party explicitly made up of non-politicians – from nothing to 15 seats in the 1977 elections, Klughaft cautions against drawing parallels between then and now, noting that the party fell apart within two years because it lacked a strong, charismatic leader and a clearly defined program.
The Dash example, he said, shows precisely the amateurism inherent in the creation of “romantic parties” that look promising on paper. The obstacle course of creating a new party is likely to result – at best – in it “crashing on the ground of reality before it even takes off”, he said, and at worst “falling apart after it takes off”.
Still, Klughaft acknowledged that the country wants change. He said that 66 percent of the country’s Jewish population places themselves somewhere between the center-right and the far-right, and only 13 percent of the public places themselves in the opposite camp between the center-left and the far-left.
Regardless of where they stand on the political spectrum, Klughaft said, “According to extensive studies, the Israeli public is primarily concerned about the dysfunctional state system, poor governance and inappropriate appointments. When experienced managers and businessmen come, they can integrate into the existing parties and respond to the public’s need for better governance.”
It is time to integrate new people into the government
Klughaft said the best way to achieve this was to integrate new people into existing structures rather than establishing more parties, which would only make coalition formation more difficult.
He said the disease afflicting Israel’s political system is not a lack of parties, but rather a lack of small governments, citing the Bennett government, which was sworn in with only 60 MPs, and Netanyahu’s current government, which relies on the far right and has little room to maneuver.
In the future, “one of the key questions will be who can form a broad government in which no side feels excluded from decisions that tear the country apart. The problem is the type of government and its breadth, not the need for new party structures.”
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