Israel and Hezbollah are playing with fire, but nobody wants another war

June 19, 2024

Image source, Getty Images

Image description, For several weeks now, Israelis have been fighting the fires in the north that were caused by Hezbollah rockets.

Author, Lucy Williamson
Role, Middle East correspondent, Jerusalem
18 minutes ago

The fact that hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah escalated this week, even as rocket fire subsided, is a strange political turn of events.

The recent fierce exchange of fire during the Muslim festival of Eid al-Adha has been replaced by a fiery volley of threats, with the familiar drumbeat of deterrence setting the tone for war.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened on Wednesday to invade northern Israel if a full-scale war with Israel broke out.

He also said Hezbollah had “new weapons” that would be on display at the site.

He added, however, that the group does not want a full-scale war with Israel and sees its involvement as support for its ally, Hamas, in the Gaza Strip.

On Tuesday, Hezbollah released drone footage of the northern Israeli city of Haifa, marking key military and civilian sites, in what was widely seen as a veiled threat to Israel not to escalate the conflict – a deadly attack on Haifa would likely trigger an all-out war.

Mr Nasrallah said it was part of Hezbollah’s “psychological warfare” against its enemy.

Hours after the video was released, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said the country was “very close to the moment of decision to change the rules against Hezbollah and Lebanon.”

In the event of a full-scale war, he said, “Hezbollah would be destroyed and Lebanon would be hit hard.”

The Israeli military said operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon had been “approved and confirmed.”

It is widely believed that neither Israel nor Hezbollah wants to start a war at the moment. Such a war – between two well-armed enemies – would cost millions of lives on both sides of the border and would also draw Hezbollah’s backer Iran and the United States, Israel’s main ally, into the war.

But the line between deterrence and the will to war is becoming increasingly difficult to recognize.

Image source, Getty Images

Image description, Israelis take cover as sirens warn of rocket launches from southern Lebanon

Some in the Israeli government believe that Hamas’s attacks on October 7 have changed security assessments and that residents of the northern areas will not be able to return to their homes unless Hezbollah is defeated on the battlefield.

Many of these residents agree. More than 60,000 of them have been living in makeshift shelters away from the border since Hezbollah began firing rockets and missiles across the border to support its Palestinian ally Hamas.

In addition, over 90,000 Lebanese were displaced as Israeli forces responded with air and artillery strikes.

A poll of 800 Israelis by the Jewish People Policy Institute this week found that more than 60 percent wanted to attack Hezbollah “with full force.” More than a third (36 percent) said they wanted to do so “as soon as possible” – even before Israel ends the fight against Hamas in Gaza. That number has risen since a similar poll three months ago.

The war in Gaza is another reason why the Israeli government may be afraid of starting a second, far tougher war against Hezbollah at the same time.

This month, however, the cap on the number of reservists that could be deployed was raised from 300,000 to 350,000, fueling speculation that war in the north could not be ruled out.

The government is also trying to extend the temporary extension of the reserve requirement by raising the age limit at which soldiers can be called up for service by one year.

And over the past eight months, targets on both sides have continued to expand due to the increasing intensity of cross-border attacks.

In the days leading up to Eid al-Adha, there was a heavy drone and missile attack from Lebanon after Israel killed a senior Hezbollah commander, Taleb Abdallah.

Previously, Hezbollah had been carrying out more and more attacks over the past month and sending more and more anti-tank missiles and drones across the border.

The escalating tit-for-tat conflict poses the risk that both sides will go to war if a target is considered too sensitive or the losses are too high.

According to the UN, more than 400 people have been killed in Lebanon so far, including many civilians. In Israel, at least 25 people – soldiers and civilians – have been killed.

Image source, Getty Images

Image description, Hezbollah fired hundreds of missiles into northern Israel after its top commander, Taleb Abdallah, was killed in an attack on June 11.

The US sent envoys to both sides of the border this week to try to resolve the conflict, but Hezbollah has made it clear that it stands in solidarity with its ally Hamas. A ceasefire agreement in Gaza is widely seen as the only viable path to a diplomatic solution in the north.

For Israel’s embattled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is under pressure to restore calm, there are advantages to continuing both conflicts.

It will be difficult for him to declare victory in Gaza without killing, capturing or expelling the Hamas leadership and as long as the group still has intact, organized battalions.

And with each week that the war against Hamas continues, his forces are attacking more Hezbollah commanders and more Hezbollah positions along the northern border – which could help him persuade residents to return when both conflicts end.

Playing for time is Mr Netanyahu’s specialty.

In the north, both sides are playing with fire.