Analysts warn of “nuclear catastrophe” in Ukraine war

The longer the war between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe continues and the more provocations there are around the world, the closer the whole world comes to “flirting with nuclear catastrophe,” two nuclear analysts warn in a new editorial.

It has been over 28 months since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, leading to a protracted conflict that is currently viewed by many in foreign policy as a stalemate. Although the exact number of casualties remains unknown, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry estimates that Russia has suffered about 535,660 dead soldiers, compared to the at least 30,000 troops Ukraine has lost.

In January, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board (SASB) reset the Doomsday Clock, keeping it at 90 seconds to midnight. While this did not change the perceived nuclear threat, which is largely linked to the war between Russia and Ukraine, it did raise further caution about being “as close to a global catastrophe” as the world has ever seen.

Ivana Nikolic Hughes, president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and associate professor of chemistry at Columbia University, and Peter Kuznick, professor of history and director of the Nuclear Studies Institute at American University in Washington, DC, co-authored a new article in Responsible Statecraft, an online magazine of the Quincy Institute, warning that an increased military and state threat, coupled with sophisticated weapons, could lead the world into an impasse.

“It is time to change policy towards Ukraine and stop the escalation before it is too late. A Swiss peace conference without Russia or China has done nothing to achieve this goal. Nor have the recent G7 meetings in Italy, the NATO statements or the large-scale war games by both sides in the Atlantic and Pacific.”

The pair added: “This is a good starting point, as is an emergency meeting of heads of state and government that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres could convene. Continuing to play nuclear roulette is not an acceptable way forward.”

They are referring to the increase in defense spending by NATO allies compared to the previous year. According to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, this includes an estimated 13 percent increase in global nuclear weapons to a record $91.4 billion in 2023.

This represents an increase in nuclear weapons spending of $10.7 billion in 2023 compared to 2022, with the United States funding 80 percent of that increase.

On June 17, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg met with US President Joe Biden in Washington. He reiterated the spending increases, confirming that 23 allies will spend at least two percent of their GDP. He said the number of NATO countries meeting this target has more than doubled in the last four years.

Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Asia as both countries remain isolated from the West. Putin and other Russian politicians have regularly and recklessly made nuclear threats against the West since the invasion.

The two countries agreed to an agreement pledging military support to each other “without delay and with all means at their disposal” should either country be attacked. South Korea, the United States and Japan condemned the move, saying in a joint statement on Sunday that the treaty “should be of great concern to anyone with an interest in maintaining peace and stability on the Korean peninsula.”

Avoiding a “mistake into oblivion”

Hughes and Kuznick said the most frightening thing about nuclear war is that there is no second chance for a more humane, nonviolent compromise.

Hughes said Newsweek by phone that she and Kuznick had written the article in response to recent escalations and geopolitical turmoil, including not only the war in Eastern Europe but also threats across Asia and ongoing violence in the Gaza Strip.

“I was worried the whole time,” Hughes said. “I wouldn’t say we weren’t in danger then and we’re in danger now… I’m more worried about a mistake into oblivion.”

In their view, the probability of nuclear war has never been zero, especially since national stockpiles have accumulated in various countries over the years and weapons have become increasingly modern.

But there are times when this is more likely, such as the present. The world is different today than it was when Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev mobilized together against nuclear war. Nevertheless, there are still certain similarities with the time under President John F. Kennedy, the Cuban missile crisis and the subsequent Cold War.

“Even if you assume that the probability of something bad happening over the course of a year is small, that probability increases dramatically over the course of 50 or 80 years – that is, over the course of the life of a child born today,” she said.

Kuznick said Newsweek by phone that in a time of relative global unrest, the stakes are higher.

He pointed out that even U.S. officials, who come from the same country that gave Ukraine over $100 billion in aid, recently expressed concern about Ukrainian attacks on Russian radar systems – military moves that could also lead to escalation.

“I think the really dramatic shift came with the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring and summer and the setbacks Ukraine had suffered on the battlefield – coupled with the growing realization that Ukraine was so outnumbered and unarmed that it was on the verge of losing or being forced to accept Putin’s terms,” ​​Kuznick said.

The smartest way out of the conflict is negotiations between Ukraine, NATO and the Western states with Putin, he added, but acknowledged that Putin’s wishes could theoretically be uncompromising.

“As a planet, we are on a path to catastrophe and possibly mutual destruction,” he said.

Otherwise, he fears hundreds of thousands more casualties, even more physical destruction, an even greater waste of talent and resources through the drafting of Russian soldiers, and even greater global repression through anti-war sentiment.

“I don’t see any benefit in continuing the fighting,” he said. “Ukraine is not going to drive Russia out of Ukraine completely; Russia is not going to let that happen. They are more sophisticated… I think we are really on the slipperiest slope toward World War III and nuclear war that I have seen since the Cuban missile crisis and maybe even ever in my lifetime.”