Gaza: The war could be followed by a long Israeli campaign

The reference to all fronts refers primarily to the situation on Israel’s northern border, where there has been a recent escalation of fighting and rhetoric in the confrontation between Israel and the Lebanese armed movement Hezbollah, leading to speculation that a new, all-out war could be looming between Israel and another of its long-standing antagonists in the region.

Netanyahu has said that a further reduction in fighting in Gaza would free up troops that could be moved to the border with Lebanon. To underscore the increasing priority this front has become for Israel, Netanyahu was near the border and observed a military exercise.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog has also just spent two days in the region, visiting not only the military but also several communities that have been affected by Hezbollah’s almost daily attacks since October 8. Lebanese communities have also suffered from Israeli counterattacks.

Whatever happens on Israel’s northern border, the conflict in Gaza, albeit at a far lower level, appears to be never ending. Efforts to reach a ceasefire have again lost momentum, and neither Israel nor Hamas seem ready to fully embrace all elements of the proposal put forward by President Biden.

There has been much talk about what will happen the day after. Israel’s war cabinet was dissolved by Netanyahu after one of its members, Benny Gantz, left it. He cited the prime minister’s failure to present a post-war plan as the main reason for his resignation.

It is still unclear whether such a plan exists. In a recent interview with a friendly Israeli media outlet, Netanyahu said it was clear that “military control will be with us for the foreseeable future.”

He then spoke perhaps most extensively about how he envisions the post-war situation in Gaza: “We also want to create a civil administration, if possible with local Palestinians and perhaps with external support from the countries of the region, which will take care of humanitarian supplies and later civil affairs in the (Gaza) Strip.”

This is in line with the goals of the Biden administration. Recent reports suggest that Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are willing to participate in a security force that could operate in Gaza after the war.

But just imagining a day after in Gaza may still be quite optimistic. Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters can still reappear in areas from which they were previously driven out during the Israeli offensive. In essence, the war has now become a kind of guerrilla war.

The Israeli military’s chief spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, recently described the goal of destroying Hamas – making it disappear – as “simply pulling the wool over the public’s eyes.”

He said Hamas was an idea rooted in people’s hearts and that “anyone who thinks we can wipe out Hamas is wrong.”

This message does not seem to have reached Mr Netanyahu.

He remains adamant about his ultimate goal of a total military and political defeat of Hamas – although that goal may be reformulated in the coming weeks and months. That is why he continues to insist that Israel is free to continue its military operations if necessary, even if a ceasefire is agreed.

When he reiterated this in his interview with Channel 14, there were reports of disappointment among US officials that he was essentially negating the cornerstone of the ceasefire plan that President Biden had not only announced but also described as Israel’s own proposal.

Hamas took advantage of the opportunity to accuse Netanyahu of preventing a ceasefire agreement, although the White House has officially blamed Hamas.

In Israel, too, the families of the hostages still held in Gaza – whether alive or dead – are increasingly accusing Netanyahu of being the main obstacle to the release of their relatives.

In their latest demonstration, the hostages’ families again blocked roads across Israel. On a highway, they set fire to a metal cage emblazoned with the word “help.”

A statement said: “Netanyahu has given up hope on the hostages. They can be buried in Gaza as long as he keeps his seat.”

This third phase of Israel’s war in Gaza may be of lower intensity, but with no sign of it ending soon, the prospects of a ceasefire, the release of hostages and the start of a process by which Palestinians can rebuild their lives remain uncertain.