Understanding the Rising Value of NBA Draft Picks

With the implementation of the new CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) and the associated tighter salary caps, NBA teams are increasingly able to create short-term windows of competition rather than trying to build them for 7 to 10 years.

The harsher penalties for an expensive roster simply make this necessary in practice.

So what is likely to become more valuable?

Draft selections.

Because of the rookie scale contract system, teams have four years of cost control on all first-round picks, making it easier not only to round out rosters but also to get more for their money.

Take Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs, for example. Wembanyama has already earned a contract at the highest level and will undoubtedly get it, but he still has three full seasons to go before he gets that contract.

Thus, Spurs benefit from a high contract value for Wembanyama during this time, which – theoretically – allows them to spend money elsewhere and thus make their squad more competitive.

This is not a new development, of course. What is new is how much competing teams benefit from signing a player who will continue to improve over the course of his rookie contract and eventually reach a point where established superstars ahead of him can rely on him to help them remain competitive.

In order to keep costs down and avoid numerous restrictions on trade flexibility, one must rely on the draft to secure one’s short-term future.

This is a model the Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to follow, as they will have to pay Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren in full – and that’s not even taking into account the rest of their rotation.

By being able to acquire draft picks and reshuffle the rotation every four years with new and cheaper alternatives, the Thunder could actually afford to remain competitive longer – purely because they have the luxury of continuous selection options.

We’re unlikely to raise the price of draft picks until the reality of the new CBA hits home, and we’ve seen some teams become completely limited by it.

But rest assured, it will happen. Some teams will be overzealous – like the Suns, who themselves downplay the importance of salary cap flexibility – and they will find themselves in a position where they cannot stay for long.

Until then, teams will charge a fortune for their draft picks because that’s the best way to keep costs down.

Unless otherwise stated, all statistics on NBA.com, PBPStatistics, Cleaning the glass or Basketball ReferenceAll salary information about Spotrac. All Quotes courtesy of FanDuel Sports Betting.

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