Diamondbacks have a chance to win a big series against the Twins

After defending a narrow 5-4 lead in a win last night, the Arizona Diamondbacks have a huge chance to win the series against the Twins tonight.

The D-backs won the opening game against Minnesota, which has become a trend for them lately. They are now 7-0 in June openers, up from just 3-16 previously.

The Twins are not an “easy” opponent. They are part of a suddenly competitive AL Central and hold a strong record of 43-36. They have a strong offense that is mostly running well right now and a strong pitching staff.

The Diamondbacks are coming off a successful, if bitter, road trip to the East Coast, winning two of three games against the Nationals and losing a series to the Phillies. They are playing good baseball despite being without significant players, even losing Gabriel Moreno on the trip.

Teams have been incredibly aggressive against the D-backs lately, which we saw clearly in the Nationals series. Torey Lovullo spoke to the media before the game about how they will respond. “We have to make some adjustments, we are aware of that. We saw the Nationals go up there and in 3 games we averaged 11 pitches per inning. We try to stay one step ahead of them.”

Now it’s time for the D-backs to show what kind of team they are and get a two-game lead in the series, something they need to do more often against teams with a record above .500. Who will step up on the mound and give them a chance?

Ryne Nelson, RHP, 5-5, 5.18 ERA, 4.52 FIP in 64.1 IP

Nelson has been the definition of inconsistency for the Diamondbacks, but has found some stability in his last two outings. Each outing has had his own style and shown a certain versatility that he desperately needs. In his last outing, the young right-hander went 7 innings and allowed just 2 runs against the Nationals, earning him the win. He allowed just 3 hits, but was hit twice by a home run.

The previous start was quite notable as Nelson was able to set a career high with 8 strikeouts against the White Sox while throwing 6 innings of 1 run. The performance was certainly impressive and after two solid starts in a row, it’s fair to ask if Nelson can make it work.

Torey Lovullo spoke about Nelson finding his rhythm, saying, “He’s been there for me for some time now… we’ve seen the performances improve, the material improve, the consistency of the material improve, the adjustments improve. He’s in a really great position… he’s on a mission to continue to win baseball games.”

Overall, he’s done well as a backup during a series of injuries. His FIP suggests some bad luck and he’s generally kept the walks under control, with just 11 in 13 games started. Nelson will work with Tucker Barnhart today, as Gabriel Moreno is still on the injured list.

Simeon Woods-Richardson, RHP, 2-1, 3.26 ERA, 3.66 FIP in 60.2 IP

Woods-Richardson was acquired by the Twins in the Jose Berrios trade with the Toronto Blue Jays. That seems to be paying off well for Minnesota, as Woods-Richardson has been dominant in 2024. He has allowed 4 runs or less in 7 consecutive starts and has only allowed 4 or more runs once.

His FIP may indicate some decline, but with such a low ERA, even that 3.66 FIP seems to reflect his dominance. That’s reflected in the strikeouts as well. In his last 5 games, he has 26 strikeouts and never struck out fewer than 4 batters.

Something the Diamondbacks can likely take advantage of is his durability. Woods-Richardson has been inconsistent in terms of the length he’s offered on the mound. He’s already pitched 4.2 innings or less five times this year and twice in his last four starts. It would make sense to see an early aggressive approach from Arizona as they look to knock him out of the game early and get into the Twins’ bullpen.

The Diamondbacks stick with a very familiar lineup and don’t change much against the right-hander.

Corbin Carroll continues to swing the bat well and is working his way back from his early season struggles. Yesterday’s game showed more positive signs from the young outfielder, who hit the ball extremely hard against Joe Ryan and managed a key walk late in the game that allowed Ketel Marte to score the winning run.

Tucker Barnhart, the Diamondbacks’ regular backup catcher, is batting eighth with Gabriel Moreno still on the injured list. Barnhart has an RBI hit in each of his last 5 games behind the plate and appears to be in the middle of the offensive line despite his modest season numbers.

Eugenio Suarez continues to struggle. Although things seem to be getting worse, in yesterday’s game he managed to hit a pitch from Joe Ryan brilliantly, leading to an RBI triple in the 2nd inning.

The Twins have taken their hitters by storm and several key players are at the top of the batting order.

Royce Lewis is a name that definitely deserves to be highlighted, as his 10 home runs and incredible 1.192 OPS lead Minnesota by far, but last night he was denied a hit by the Diamondbacks pitching staff.

Byron Buxton is back in center field and batting seventh tonight. Yesterday he hit his sixth home run and a double, pushing his OPS up to .737. Injuries have often been a problem for Buxton, but he’s in top form against this Diamondbacks team and they’ll have to consider him a threat at the bottom of the order.

One notable absence from the Twins lineup is catcher Ryan Jeffers, who hit a game-winning hit against Brandon Pfaadt last night. Christian Vasquez steps in instead. Vasquez isn’t having a great season offensively, only posting a .188 batting average with 2 home runs, but his 11 RBIs are notable as he rounds out the bottom of the Twins lineup.

The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Minnesota Twins tonight at 6:40 p.m. Arizona time at Chase Field. Stay up to date with all things D-backs on Inside The Diamondbacks for post-game content and news.