The 5 O’Clock Club: The Chargers’ free agent CB was signed by the Commanders as a replacement for Kendall Fuller

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Last weekend, we looked at two cornerbacks who are free agents battling for a backup spot on the Commanders’ roster: Noah Igbinoghene and James Pierre. Today, we’re taking a look at the other veteran cornerback signed this season – Michael Davis – who was brought in to fill the roster void left when Kendall Fuller left for the Dolphins.

Michael Davis

Michael Davis has been in the NFL since 2017, but his most significant playing time has come since 2019. He spent his entire career with the Chargers until he signed with the Commanders as a free agent this offseason. It’s easy to assume that his former head coach Anthony Lynn may have something to do with the team’s interest in Davis.

His best phase in football came in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, when Davis allowed only a 53 percent success rate on 160 total attempts. He also held his opponents to 11.9 yards per catch and managed 20 pass breakups and two interceptions.

Over the past five seasons, Davis has played in 78 games and accumulated over 4,000 snaps on defense (he also has over 900 career snaps on special teams, including 266 in the 2022-23 season).

He has averaged double-digit passes defensed in each of the last four seasons, and has had at least one interception per season since 2019. Since 2020, he has averaged about 60 tackles per season, with at least one tackle for loss in each of those seasons.

Davis vs Fuller

Essentially, Davis was signed to replace Kendall Fuller, so it seems reasonable to compare the two players. Comparing career stats isn’t easy — Fuller has been in the NFL two years longer than Davis and played a lot more football than Davis before 2019 — so I ran a simple query on the two players for the 2023 season in hopes of getting a slightly better comparison between the two players.

I was surprised that Fuller and Davis are the same age. Fuller has been in the NFL since 2016, but was only 21 years old when he was drafted.

Despite only playing in 15 games last season, Fuller played an incredible 1,021 snaps – a sign of how bad Washington’s defense was. They just couldn’t get off the field.

Two other things stand out to me when I look at these advanced defensive stats from Pro Football Reference:

First, Davis was targeted further down the field. His average depth of attack on defense was 12.2 yards compared to Fuller’s 9.3. This difference is also reflected in the yards per pass completed stats (Davis 13.8; Fuller 11.8) and pass completion percentage (Davis 65.2%; Fuller 68.8%). Things seem to “even out” a bit when you factor in opposing quarterbacks’ season rating in passes targeted (Davis 119.2; Fuller 120.4).

Second, Fuller appears to be a sure-handed tackler, with a missed tackle rate of 6% compared to Davis’ 12.7%. That’s not an outlier for Davis, either. His missed tackle rate has been 10% or higher in 5 of the 6 seasons since 2018 (with a high of 15.2% in 2019). Over those same 6 seasons, Fuller’s average was around 9.5%, and last year’s 6% was only his second-best number.

It’s probably also worth noting the discrepancy between air yards and yards after the catch. Fuller was targeted from shallower depth, but gave up 73 more yards after the catch on 3 fewer receptions.

Without a doubt, Fuller is more popular with PFF. Here’s a comparison of their respective results since 2019.

As you can see, Davis has consistently received grades between 54 and 63 in his overall defense, with a single positive outlier of 73.8 in 2022. Fuller, on the other hand, has scored over 70 twice and over 80 twice, with his lowest outlier being a grade of 66.7 in 2020 when he returned to Washington after his time as a champion in Kansas City.

How Michael Davis fits in Washington

The Commanders’ cornerback group has only undergone a few changes this offseason, but they were significant. By drafting Mike Sainristil in the 2nd round, the Commanders’ brain trust selected a specialized slot defender, allowing Quan Martin to play safety and Ben St-Juste to remain at the boundary. By replacing Fuller with Davis, the team changed the group’s experienced leadership. Aside from James Pierre and Noah Igninoghene, who both appear to be competing for backup spots on the roster, Davis will be the only cornerback in camp who has played out his original NFL contract. At 29 years old, he needs to transition into a leadership role.

That’s not a situation Davis is used to. Two-time Pro Bowler Casey Hayward led the Chargers in rushing for the first half of Davis’ career, followed by Chris Harris Jr., a four-time Pro Bowler who spent two seasons in Los Angeles.

But Davis is excited about being the veteran in the Commanders’ defensive backfield because he can help mold his younger teammates and show them how to have a long career.

“As a young group, you have so much potential,” Davis said. “When you work with a group of veterinarians, they usually already have their own routine. They already know what to do. So sometimes it’s a little difficult to talk to a veterinarian. As young people, they’re hungry for information. They’re hungry to learn.”

Davis was, of course, very positive and confident about joining the Commanders.

I felt like this was the best place for me, the best place to come and develop myself; I couldn’t pass up this opportunity.

I knew I would fit his mold perfectly. I know Dan Quinn likes bigger corners – bigger, faster, higher corners – and that’s me.

Davis is actually taller than Kendall Fuller, measuring 6’2″ while Fuller is 6’1″. However, he is slightly surpassed by Ben St-Juste, who is listed at 6’3″.

Contract & Future

Three years ago, when Davis was 26 and entering his fifth NFL season, he signed a three-year deal with the Chargers that paid him an average of $8.4 million per year. He played out that contract and then signed a one-year deal with the Commanders that paid him $3.2 million plus a $1.38 million signing bonus.

The current contract suggests that Washington expects Davis to provide short-term stability to the defensive roster, but also shows that he is not viewed as valuable as he was in 2021.

Before the 2023 season, Davis seemed to be on the rise. Consider this analysis from the end of the 2022 season:

However, after JC Jackson’s season-ending injury, Davis stepped into the starting lineup and played his best football to date towards the end of his career.

According to Pro Football Focus, Davis posted an overall rating of 71.8 or higher (60.0 is considered average) five times from Weeks 12-17, including a season-high 82.6 against the Rams. That strong stretch came after a first half of the season in which Davis didn’t post a single game rating above 68.0.

Because of that inspired play at the end of the season, Davis was named the Chargers’ most underrated player by Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com.

“Davis has a relatively high salary cap hit in 2023 ($9.4 million), but his computer vision charts show he was very productive in multiple lineups last season,” Frelund says. “Davis was asked to do a lot due to a series of injuries that cost the Chargers some of his most valuable defensive teammates, but he has stepped up. Computer vision shows his fatigue was the seventh lowest among defensive backs who played at least 60 percent of their team’s defensive snaps. He ranked sixth in the NFL with 15 passes defensed last season.”

That last number may be the one that stands out the most about Frelund. Davis finished the year with the sixth-most passes defensed in the NFL despite playing roughly half the season as a starter. That’s incredible. It’s also a far cry from his down year in 2021. Now, Davis appears to be on track to start the 2023 season alongside Asante Samuel Jr., barring a huge rehab push from JC Jackson. But even if Jackson returns to the lineup sooner rather than later, it will be difficult for coaches to keep Davis off the field should he continue his strong play from last season.

Ultimately, Davis was unable to maintain his high level of play in 2023, which is likely why he hit the free agent market in March.

Davis will almost certainly play a lot of football for an inferior Commanders CB group in 2024, but if he wants to extend his NFL career by staying with the Commanders in 2025 and beyond, he will need to excel in the defensive system under coordinator Joe Whitt and head coach Dan Quinn.

Ultimately, Davis seems to be aware of his situation in Washington. “I have to be better than I have been the last seven years,” Davis said this offseason. “I know I’ve had my phases here and there. I think I need to be more consistent. Consistency is the key to everything in life.”