US urges Israel to avoid war with Hezbollah

The United States is pressuring Israel to avoid a major war against Lebanon’s Hezbollah, with senior U.S. officials pushing for a diplomatic solution to prevent another crisis in the Middle East.

There are almost daily exchanges of fire between the Israeli military and the Iran-backed Hezbollah. Last week, the Israeli army said plans for an offensive in Lebanon had been “approved and confirmed.”

Washington is working to calm the situation, but these efforts – which come on top of differences between the administrations of US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – could further escalate tensions between the two leaders.

“Under the Biden administration, there is growing concern that mutual violence along the Israeli-Lebanese border could escalate into outright war,” said Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation.

“The stakes are high for two reasons. First, another war between Israel and Lebanon would be extremely destructive for both sides,” Cohen said.

“Secondly, … a war between Israel and Hezbollah carries a greater risk of escalating into a larger regional war than the Gaza war has so far. Hezbollah is the crown jewel in Iran’s proxy network, so it is reasonable to assume that Iran would be more likely to intervene,” he said.

According to a count by the AFP news agency, at least 481 people have been killed in Lebanon in the last eight months as a result of cross-border violence, most of them fighters, but also 94 civilians.

According to Israeli authorities, at least 15 soldiers and eleven civilians were killed in the north of the country.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is visiting Washington to reaffirm the value of relations with Israel’s most important ally. American politicians are also using the opportunity to push for a diplomatic solution to the fighting between Hezbollah and Israeli troops.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin received Gallant at the Pentagon on Tuesday and warned that “another war between Israel and Hezbollah could easily become a regional war with dire consequences for the Middle East.”

“Diplomacy is by far the best way to prevent further escalation,” he said.

Opening the meeting with Austin, Gallant said: “We are working closely together to reach an agreement, but we also need to discuss preparedness for every possible scenario.”

– “Avoid further escalation” –

The day before, Gallant had met for two hours at the State Department with leading US diplomat Antony Blinken, who delivered a similar message.

Blinken “stressed the importance of avoiding further escalation of the conflict and reaching a diplomatic solution that allows both Israeli and Lebanese families to return to their homes,” said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.

Miller told reporters on Tuesday: “We think a diplomatic solution is possible. We think it is in the interest of all parties. And I want to say that Secretary Gallant confirmed to the Secretary of State yesterday that this is Israel’s preferred outcome.”

Gallant said Monday that the United States and Israel must “quickly put aside their differences and stand together – that is how we will achieve our goals and weaken our enemies.”

However, US pressure in the Lebanon conflict could also exacerbate tensions between the two sides.

“I think the question is less whether this will increase tensions between Biden and Netanyahu, but rather how much,” Cohen said.

He pointed out that Netanyahu had publicly criticized the United States for delaying the delivery of weapons – a situation that Washington says only applies to a single bomb shipment. There are also tensions over the humanitarian situation in Gaza and the lack of a post-war plan for the area.

Several Western diplomats have visited Lebanon in recent months to try to ease cross-border tensions, including US envoy Amos Hochstein, who last week called for an “urgent” de-escalation.

Cohen said that ultimately neither Israel nor Hezbollah wanted a full-scale conflict, given the potential consequences for both sides.

“But neither side wants to give in,” he said, comparing the situation to “a big game of victory where both sides are seeing who will give way first.”