Series preview: Mets host Yankees for first Subway Series 2024

After another series win against the Cubs, the New York Mets (37-39) host their city rivals New York Yankees (52-28) for a two-game series.

Since returning from London, the Mets have won all four of their subsequent series. Now the Mets are 1.5 games back of the third wild card spot and in the thick of battle with several other teams.

Across town, the Yankees have emerged as serious World Series contenders, sitting two games atop the American League East Division after losing the last three series.

Let’s take a look at the pitching duels in this short Subway Series!

Tuesday, June 25, 2024: RHP Gerrit Cole (0-0, 4.50 ERA) vs. LHP David Peterson (3-0, 3.97 ERA)

Yankees ace Gerrit Cole will make his second start of the season on Tuesday. In his 2024 debut, he threw four innings with five strikeouts and three runs allowed. Cole’s four-seam fastball averaged 95 mph, nearly two miles per hour less than last year. That number will likely rise as Cole’s workload increases as the Yankees remain cautious after his return from an elbow injury. Cole also used his cutter more often than usual in his first outing, while his slider was used less often. He appears to be building on his encouraging first start on Tuesday.

Coach Carlos Mendoza decided to Luis Severinos Start until Sunday so David Peterson can throw on Tuesday. Peterson’s 53.9 percent groundball rate may have been a factor in that decision, as the Yankees have a number of strong power hitters. Additionally, the Yankees are hitting .235/.323/.376 overall against lefties and .256/.333/.449 against righties, suggesting Peterson may be a more difficult opponent for them. Although Peterson has been effective this year, his strikeout numbers have dropped sharply. Both his whiff rate and strikeout rate have dropped dramatically, and he’s in the fifth and third percentiles for both, respectively. He appears to be producing more swings and misses on Tuesday against an overpowered offense.

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Wednesday, June 26, 2024: RHP Luis Gil (9-2, 2.77 ERA) vs. LHP Sean Manaea (4-3, 4.16 ERA)

Despite allowing seven earned runs in 1 1/3 innings in his last start, Luis Gil has been excellent for the Yankees this year. He boasts a .190 xBA in the 95th percentile and a 29.3 strikeout percentage in the 89th percentile. He uses his four-seam fastball over half the time, and opponents are hitting just .158 against it, with a 30.8 percent whiff rate. It’s very impressive that he can maintain those stats while using the pitch so frequently. His changeup and slider are also very strong, with whiff rates of 27 percent and 32.3 percent, respectively. He appears to be rebounding from his poor outing against the Mets on Wednesday.

Sean Manaea has been better in his last two starts, pitching a total of 10 2/3 innings with 13 strikeouts and four runs allowed. He still struggles with forcing ground balls, as his percentage has dropped from 42.4 in 2023 to 32.8 this year. Additionally, his hard-hit rate has increased from 36.4 percent last year to 41.9 percent this year. If Manaea can strike out opponents at a similar rate to his last two starts, his other issues won’t hurt him as much as they have this year.

Players in focus

Aaron Richter (NYY)

Since June 16, Aaron Judge has a batting average of .300/.364/.750 with three home runs, seven RBIs, and a wRC+ of 212. These numbers are similar to his overall numbers for the season, as he has a batting average of .300/.423/.686 with a wRC+ of 206 and an fWAR of 5.2. Judge also has the league’s best barrel and hard hit rates at 28.4% and 62.4%, respectively. In addition, he has a walk rate of 16.9% and a chase rate of 18.7%, showing that he is by no means an easy out. The Mets are using two left-handed starters in this series, and Judge has a batting average of .276/.462/.655 with a wRC+ of 209 against them. He has played 21 regular season games against the Mets in his career and has a batting average of .299 with 10 home runs and 15 RBIs.

Francisco Lindor (NYC)

Since June 17, Francisco Lindor has a batting average of .346/.370/.577 with four extra-base hits and a wRC+ of 171. This is no flash in the pan for Lindor, as he has a barrel rate of 13.1 percent in the 86th percentile and a hard hit rate of 46.4 percent in the 78th percentile. He now has a wRC+ of 114 and a fWAR of 2.9 on the season, which is a huge improvement over his numbers in April and May. Since joining the Mets in 2021, Lindor has played 14 regular season games against the Yankees, with a .327 average, 16 hits, four home runs and 10 RBIs.