Ukraine’s ATACMS missile attack: How will Russia react?

Summary and key points: A Ukrainian long-range attack with a US-supplied ATACMS missile killed five civilians, including three children, in Sevastopol, Crimea. Moscow has announced retaliatory measures against Ukraine and the US.

– The attack likely targeted a key military site but resulted in civilian casualties. The ATACMS missile, fired from HIMARS or MLRS, has a range of nearly 320 kilometers and uses GPS for precise targeting. U.S. officials emphasize Ukraine’s responsibility for targeting and note the importance of keeping civilian casualties to a minimum.

– The Kremlin could exploit this incident for propaganda purposes and future escalation, but an immediate major escalation is unlikely.

Ukrainian ATACMS attack in Crimea: Five civilians killed

According to Russian authorities, five civilians, including three children, were killed in a Ukrainian long-range attack using US ATACMS munitions in Crimea.

Moscow has announced retaliatory measures against Ukraine and the United States because of the attack.

ATACMS strike

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, a Ukrainian ATACMS missile exploded over a seaside resort in Sevastopol on Sunday, killing five civilians and injuring more than a hundred.

Sevastopol, the capital of the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula, is a major military base for the Russian military and has been repeatedly attacked by Ukrainian forces with air and sea strikes.

“You should ask my colleagues in Europe and especially the press secretaries in Washington why their governments are killing Russian children,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, according to Reuters.

After months of long-range missile and drone attacks on key infrastructure and urban centers in Ukraine that killed or wounded thousands of civilians, Ukraine is now launching a counteroffensive, using Western-supplied weapons systems and munitions to attack high-profile Russian military targets behind the front lines.

Sunday’s incident was likely such an attack until something went wrong.

US officials stressed that Kiev was responsible for the long-range, targeted attacks and that the Pentagon was providing military support to the besieged country to help it defend itself against unprovoked Russian aggression.

The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) is a tactical ballistic munition fired from the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) or M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS). It has a range of nearly 200 miles and uses a GPS to precisely home in on the target. The Ukrainian military has an unspecified number of ATACMS munitions, which it uses against high-value military targets in Ukraine and behind the front lines.

Escalation?

What happened in Crimea has always been a thorn in the side of US officials. The Kremlin is willing to use anything to discredit the US, NATO and military aid to Ukraine. The fact that the missile may have killed or injured civilians is easy propaganda for the Kremlin.

This is one of the main reasons why the White House is so reluctant to actually provide military assistance to Kyiv. But these are the unfortunate realities of war. What is important is a proper targeting process that also takes civilian casualties into account. So far, the Ukrainian targeting process has gone well and there have been few unintended casualties.

Ultimately, the Kremlin is unlikely to seek further escalation because of the ATACMS attack – such as a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine. U.S. officials have most likely already informed their Ukrainian counterparts that better intelligence is needed before a long-range attack using Pentagon weapons systems and munitions. But otherwise, life will go on as usual. However, Russian officials could add this attack to a “list of grievances” to support further escalation at a time of their choosing.

About the author: Biography and military expertise

Stavros Atlamazoglou is an experienced defense journalist specializing in Special Operations and a veteran of the Greek Army (military service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army Headquarters). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, SandboxxAnd SOFREP.

All images are Creative Commons.

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