Heavy storm front could deliver heavy blows towards morning; secure loose objects before going to bed

The best severe thunderstorm forecasting models are strongly biased toward a significant line of severe storms. This line of storms is slowly moving northward and is expected to affect much of Lower Michigan by tomorrow.

Check out the latest radar forecast from the high-resolution model that best predicts thunderstorms. I’ve been watching this model’s work every hour. Over the past 12 hours, the storm line has shown a trend of moving north. Now it looks like the severe storm line could extend from the Petoskey area south along the entire Lake Michigan coast. The storms could even converge as far inland as US 127 and reach severe strength.

Here is the radar forecast from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model, a model that can develop thunderstorms.

Between 4 and 6 a.m., the line of severe storms could reach Traverse City, Frankfort, Manistee and Ludington. The line of severe storms is then expected to move southeast across Lower Michigan between 6 and 10 a.m. After 9 a.m., the line of storms could weaken.

Such a line of thunderstorms can produce significant straight-line winds. As a rough estimate, this line of thunderstorms could have wind gusts of up to 70 miles per hour.

The storms will likely be strongest as they come ashore on the Lake Michigan coast. They could still be severe as they move through Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Mount Pleasant, Saginaw, Bay City and Flint. They could fall below the severity limit as they move into extreme southeastern Lower Michigan, including Ann Arbor and Detroit.

To get an idea of ​​whether a model’s forecast is correct, we watch what is actually happening now and compare it to what the models predict. The models are now predicting that a cluster of severe storms will form in far northwest Wisconsin. That is actually happening right now. It’s significant that a cluster of severe storms can form so late at night. That means they could end up being pretty severe.

Here’s the constantly updated radar. The storm cloud moving into the Chicago area was predicted by the models. You can just make out the new storm cloud forming in far northwest Wisconsin. These are the severe storms to watch for in Michigan during morning storms.

If you have anything that could be touched by the wind, you should secure it before going to bed.

Prepare for a potentially very stormy sunrise along the west and northwest coast of Lower Michigan. Inland areas could be very stormy during the first half of Tuesday morning.

Stay up to date with the weather here.