Series Preview No. 26: Twins @ Diamondbacks

Weak June schedule.

If you have to do without your number 1-2-3 in the rotation, then there is probably no better month to lose them than this Diamondbacks month of June.

The Diamondbacks were unspectacular in June, but have gone 13-8 and fought their way back into the Wild Card hunt, which is a terribly mediocre fight. But where a few weeks ago there were a number of teams under .500 battling for the Wild Card remnants, the last spots are currently occupied by the Cardinals (.513) and Padres (.500). After losing to the Phillies, the Nationals have overtaken the Diamondbacks again, the Mets are right behind us with the same winning (or losing) percentage, and the Pirates, Cubs, Reds and Giants are 2 games or less behind us.

The best way to describe the road trip and the home game before it is “nothing to celebrate.” I was hoping we would win the series against the Angels, White Sox and Nationals and at least get one win against Philly. Anything less would be cause for celebration. So basically we accomplished exactly what I hoped we would, but we didn’t get anything to celebrate. – Smurf-1000 and his resume of the series before entering this new home, cheesy comment on AZSnakePit

But as Smurf-1000 said, can we really expect much more from this team than what they’ve done so far? That’s hardly to be expected given the questionable performances of the starting pitchers currently replacing Gallen, Kelly and Rodriguez in the rotation. If we believe Montgomery’s recent turnaround, good times are ahead.

Still, it’s a little sad that we have to accept these “miserable” wins because if we want to make the postseason, the team really needs to get better and healthier.

At home, I’m disappointed that we didn’t beat the Angels or the White Sox. Away, a win against the Nats would have been great. Those extra wins could count toward making the playoffs. – Makakilo in a recent discussion, on the AZSnakePit

Twins: Battle for the wild card.

Arizona’s Wild Card battle isn’t going to get much easier. Although we close out the month of June with another “bad” team like the Oakland Athletics, we first have to welcome one of the traditionally strong teams in the AL Central: the Minnesota Twins.

It’s a good tradition to disparage the AL Central as one of the weakest divisions, but this year the AL Central teams seem to be making more noise. The Cleveland Guardians have a solid lead with a .653 winning percentage, the best in the American League and second best in all of MLB (behind the Phillies). That puts the Minnesota Twins, with their good 43-35 record, in second place in their division and in a wild card position, but just ahead of the surprising Kansas City Royals at 42-37. Even the Detroit Tigers aren’t bad this year (36-41), as we saw a few weeks ago when they won 2 of 3 in a series at Chase Field.

That’s quite an accomplishment for a team that was predicted to contend for a wild card but that saw one of its biggest contributors from last season (Sonny Gray) leave as a free agent and trade another (Jorge Polanco) without signing any new big-name players, all on the heels of an ALDS loss to the Astros (3-1) and with the ongoing Bally Sports saga hanging over their heads.

So the Twins entered this season without much depth, and the biggest factor in this team’s success is that they’ve stayed healthy while still getting useful contributions from their core players. The Twins have used just 17 outfielders this season. In a baseball environment where offense is generally weak, the Twins hitters are one of the better hitting teams in the league, with Carlos Correa (.304/.368/.491) going to special honors. Third baseman Royce Lewis returned from the IL this June, and the former top prospect is showing what he can do when healthy (.348/.413/.848).

On the pitching side, they got a disappointing performance from former ace Pablo López, although he did pitch 8 scoreless innings in his last appearance yesterday in Oakland. Still, the Twins have a top pitching corps in the league, with Joe Ryan (3.13 ERA) and Simeon Woods-Richardson (3.26 ERA) in this year’s rotation, and while the entire bunch is at a meager 98 in ERA+, they’re only behind the Mariners in K/BB sight. In the bullpen, former Diamondback Jhoan Duran isn’t as solid as last season (but still good enough), but Griffin Jax has grabbed the spotlight and many crucial situations, even taking over some closer situations.

As mentioned, the Twins have gotten to where they are today by consistently performing and taking advantage of series against weaker opponents in the MLB. They have swept the White Sox (twice), the Angels and the Athletics, fought and beat direct competitors like the Royals, Rangers, Astros and Mariners, and barely stood a chance against teams like the Orioles, Yankees and Indians and got swept.

All in all, the Diamondbacks face a tough challenge as the team plays according to its abilities.

pairings.

Game #1, Tue., 6/25, 6:40 PM MST, Joe Ryan (MIN) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI).

• 15 GS, 92.0 IP, 5 W-5 L, 3.13 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 0.96 WHIP, 6.33 K/BB.
• Brandon Pfaadt. 15 GS, 90.2 IP, 3 W-6 L, 4.37 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 3.82 K/BB.

For one of the best starting pitchers in MLB, Joe Ryan has surprisingly few wins, despite making 11 good starts in 15 games for the Minnesota Twins. Ryan is on pace to earn his first career All-Star nomination and is quietly establishing himself at the top of the Minnesota Twins’ rotation. In a more hitter-friendly park, Joe Ryan’s secondary numbers are actually better at home than on the road, although his away ERA is much stronger: 2.49 versus 3.70. Ryan has pitched at least 5 innings in all of his games, with his worst outing coming earlier this month against the Astros when he allowed 5 runs. Ryan has never faced the Diamondbacks in his career.

It will be a tough matchup for Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt has shown he can keep good lineups in check, and why not the Twins’. The odds are probably in Joe Ryan’s favor, but the Diamondbacks shouldn’t be without a chance in this first game of the series.

Game #2, Wednesday, June 26, 6:40pm MST, Simeon Woods-Richardson (MIN) vs. Ryne Nelson (ARI).

• Simeon Woods Richardson. 12 GS, 60.2 IP, 2 W-1 L, 3.26 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 3.06 K/BB.
• Ryne Nelson. 13 G, 12 GS, 64.1 IP, 5 W-5 N, 5.18 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 1.51 WHIP, 2.39 K/BB.

Woods Richardson, one of the most promising players in the Mets system, landed in Minnesota after the Jose Berrios trade. He rose through the minors well but struggled in the majors and AAA last year. The rookie throws a 93 mph fastball but needs his power to be successful, such as his good curve and slider. Woods Richardson is a flyball pitcher and may have had a little more luck with the hard hits this season. He doesn’t get as far in games and has only made it to the 7th inning once.

After a good game against the Nationals and a win against the weak White Sox, Nelson now has a more serious opponent. Has Nelson really taken a step forward? If so, the Diamondbacks can use him well in this series.

Game #3, Thu, 6/27, 12:40 PM MST, Chris Paddack (MIN) vs. Jordan Montgomery (ARI).

• Chris Paddack. 15 GS, 78.1 IP, 5 W-3 L, 5.29 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 1.43 WHIP, 3.89 K/BB.
• Jordan Montgomery. 12 GS, 63.0 IP, 6 W-4 L, 5.71 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 1.57 WHIP, 2.00 K/BB.

After losing some confidence against the White Sox and Angels, Montgomery finally put in a good performance against a serious caliber opponent, posting a much-celebrated win over the Phillies. A good Montgomery is also what the Diamondbacks will need in their final game of this series to either avoid a sweep or pull off a nice win. One might be inclined to say the matchup is favorable, with former Padre Chris Paddack pitching for the Twins.

Paddack is the only remaining piece of the Padres-Twins trade that sent Pagan and Paddack to the Twins and Brooker and Taylor Rogers the other way. Paddack is probably the weakest pitcher in this Twins rotation and it’s not unreasonable to assume he’ll be taken out of the rotation at some point as the Twins try to find an upgrade over him before the trade deadline and push further into the Wild Card. Plus, Paddack is probably at the pitch limit anyway after he returns from his TJ surgery in September 2023. Despite the high ERA, you could say Paddack was a useful pitcher in that back part of the rotation. The 5 wins he has to his credit say just that and a closer look at his game logs shows he’s been hit exceptionally hard by the Yankees (twice) and Orioles lineups, with a few misfires here and there against the Angels and Athletics. But in 8 of his 15 appearances, he limited the opponent to 2 or fewer runs in 5 innings.