Case of a contract extension at fair market value for Steelers running back Najee Harris

Let me start this post by letting you all know that my upcoming opinions will not be overly popular and therefore not widely supported. They are about Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris and whether the team should sign him to a contract extension before the start of the 2024 regular season.

Harris has become a popular topic since the end of mandatory minicamp and that’s likely due to a few things Steelers GM Omar Khan said about the running back in a recent radio interview, as well as the fact that the New England Patriots recently extended RB Rhamondre Stevenson’s contract a few weeks ago, which reportedly includes an average base salary of $9 million.

While I’m not the type to defend running backs on a regular basis because I view the position as highly interchangeable, I do believe the Steelers should seriously consider giving Harris a contract extension this summer with a new average annual salary equal to or slightly higher than Stevenson’s contract.

Before we go any further, I want to clarify my tinfoil hat view on why the Steelers may not have picked up Harris’ fifth-year option in May, and specifically whether they’re ultimately interested in potentially giving him a significant contract extension before the start of the 2024 regular season. That’s just a theory, mind you.

First of all, if the Steelers had picked up Harris’ fifth-year option, the running back would technically have had two years left on his current contract. The Steelers have a long history of not renewing non-quarterbacks who have more than a year left on their current contracts. What does all this mean? Well, if Harris’ contract was ultimately renewed after the Steelers picked up his fifth-year option, it would be considered a violation of precedent by the organization.

Aside from breaking the precedent of a two-year hiatus, the Steelers would have set themselves up for future players exercising their fifth-year option to point to the Harris result and thus expect a contract extension for themselves in the same offseason that the decision was made. Does that make sense?

My tinfoil hat theory about Harris opting for the fifth-year option could only be proven correct if the Steelers give him a contract extension before the start of the regular season. And such a contract extension would have to have a new money average higher than the amount Harris’ fifth-year option was set to be in 2025 ($6.79 million). Anything other than that outcome would essentially render my theory as silly and baseless, not that I haven’t had a few of those over the years.

Now, why do I believe Harris should sign a contract extension before the regular season begins that has a higher average signing salary than Stevenson?

First of all, Harris more than matched Stevenson in terms of overall production over his first three NFL seasons, and he did so largely because he played in an inept offense led by former offensive coordinator Matt Canada. The Steelers also had QB Kenny Pickett at quarterback for nearly two of those three seasons.

The fact that Harris has managed to rush for 1,000 yards for three consecutive seasons since entering the NFL is pretty impressive. Additionally, Harris is also the only NFL player to accomplish this feat in the last three seasons. Only six other running backs have caught more balls than Harris in the last three seasons, and only five others have rushed for more yards from the faceoff line than him. Harris has also yet to miss an NFL game, and considering he has touched the football 978 times in the regular season, that is an impressive feat in and of itself.

While Harris certainly wasn’t one of the biggest run contributors percentage-wise during his college career at Alabama, he has held his own in that stat category since entering the NFL. Harris has recorded 15 runs of 20 yards or more, and only 10 other running backs have recorded more runs than him over the past three seasons. Stevenson, by the way, has recorded eight such runs over the past three seasons.

Now, I’m not trying to paint Harris as some kind of absolutely irreplaceable running back on the same level as San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey. He’s not even close. McCaffrey is the highest-paid running back in the NFL with an APY of $19 million, and for good reason. That said, I think Harris is worth at least half of what McCaffrey is currently making, which is about $9.5 million APY.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs is the fifth-highest paid player at his position in the NFL with an APY of $12 million. Personally, I think it’s a lofty goal for Harris to surpass him this summer. However, a new APY of $9.5 million for Harris this summer would still put him seventh among NFL running backs, behind Joe Mixon of the Houston Texans and one spot ahead of Stevenson. That feels like an accurate ranking.

Now let’s look at Harris’ current ranking with the Steelers. According to Over the Cap, Harris’ APY of $3,261,861 ranks 17th on the Steelers at the end of June. That’s two spots behind rookie OT Troy Fautanu ($3,763,824) and three spots behind OG Nate Herbig ($4,000,000), who played only 156 offensive snaps in 2023. That just seems wrong when you consider Harris’ performance in his first three NFL seasons.

Some will probably comment that Harris signed his rookie contract and therefore he should continue as he is. I honestly understand that point from a fan’s perspective. I also understand the market value of positions in the NFL from a business perspective and in my opinion Harris is currently severely underpaid.

I am by no means advocating that Harris should become one of the top five highest paid running backs in the NFL this summer. If he wants to go that high, I think it’s a mistake on his part. However, I believe Harris would be within his rights to want to go just above Stevenson and possibly even Mixon. The proposed contract I outlined a week ago last Friday reflects such a deal, which I believe is fair to both Harris and the Steelers.

Not that the Steelers are seriously considering putting the franchise tag on Harris next offseason, but since they didn’t exercise the fifth-year option on their former first-round draft pick in May, it could now be used as a sort of negotiating weapon. As it stands, Harris has a potential max income of nearly $15.5 million through 2025, and that’s only if he gets the franchise tag after the 2024 season. Based on that, a contract extension could happen this summer, which I did in my recent contract forecast.

Yes, the Steelers have another very capable running back in Jaylen Warren, but he won’t be seriously considered for a new contract until next offseason at the earliest. I’m not ruling out Warren by advocating for giving Harris a new contract. I’m just looking at Harris’ situation on its own.

Now that Stevenson is getting paid, I wonder if Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne could be the next player at his position to get paid this summer. If such a summer deal is on the cards for Etienne, it’s hard to imagine him accepting less than what Stevenson’s new contract calls for. In short, if the Steelers have any interest in extending Harris before the start of the 2024 regular season, they should seriously consider getting ahead of the Jaguars and Etienne and getting down the proverbial aisle.

A little over a week ago, Khan addressed the Steelers’ decision not to exercise Harris’ fifth-year option in May.

“I love Najee as a player and as a person,” Khan said on 93.7 The Fan. “Just because we didn’t pick him up doesn’t mean we can’t do something long-term with Najee. I’d like to say Najee was here and had a long career in Pittsburgh. He represents us really well on the field and off the field.”

Everyone can read what they want into Khan’s comments, but I believe that based on his recent comments, Khan will still try to get Harris a fair-market contract extension this summer.

If Harris ultimately does not sign a contract extension before training camp begins, I could see him entering a holding pattern of sorts once the team arrives at Saint Vincent College in Latrobe. Personally, I expect that to happen and believe that should be his next step. Whether that moves him forward is pure speculation. However, I will say that Harris will not be happy at all in 2024 if he does not get a new contract before the start of the regular season.

In closing, I think Harris’ current situation is fair and correct. Personally, I think he deserves a contract extension, and one that includes a new APY that is slightly higher than Stevenson’s. Furthermore, such an extension should not include fully guaranteed money beyond 2024, but only the signing bonus and base salary. Essentially, it’s a one-year, $10.2 million deal with two option years, if you will.

Most people looking at this situation with Harris, and especially the fact that the Steelers decided not to pick up his fifth-year option, will conclude that there isn’t even the slightest chance he gets an extension before the 2024 regular season begins. I honestly understand that line of thinking. That said, I don’t think a summer extension is completely out of the question for Harris. Personally, I think he deserves one similar to what I recently laid out. Will he get one? I’m not confident enough to guarantee that, and that will probably make some of you reading this post incredibly happy.