Best model shows when and where severe thunderstorms could hit Michigan

Another round of potentially severe thunderstorms is expected across parts of Michigan. Here’s when and where we should watch for these storms.

The first important point to note about this severe thunderstorm probability is that it is a “conditional severe weather situation.” This means that tomorrow morning’s thunderstorms will depend on what happens during an earlier round of thunderstorms today. Today’s severe thunderstorms will determine where the severe thunderstorms develop during a second round tonight. That second round of thunderstorms could be the severe storms that move through Lower Michigan Tuesday morning.

Since this is a conditional configuration, reliability is not as high as normal when there is a probability of severe weather in less than 18 hours.

One aspect that seems to have a high probability is the timing of the storms, which has a direct impact on the severity of the storms. Almost all data indicates that the storms will move through Lower Michigan on Tuesday morning. The morning is the coolest and most stable time of day. This means that any line of severe thunderstorms should actually weaken on its way to Lower Michigan. We should have lower-end severe storms. The storms developing in Wisconsin today in the late afternoon and early evening could be even more severe due to the heat of the day.

Here is the best radar forecast for this situation.

A line of severe thunderstorms is likely to form over northwest Wisconsin and move southeast into western, southwestern and central Lower Michigan between 3 and 6 a.m. tomorrow.

The radar forecast below is based on the same model. It’s just a few hours older, as this model run gives us a longer forecast through Tuesday. You’ll notice that the storms are expected to weaken significantly in the second half of Tuesday morning.

The most likely area for severe thunderstorms is the southwest quadrant of Lower Michigan. This would extend from Ludington and Big Rapids south through the Muskegon, Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo areas.

Here is the severe weather forecast for tonight and Tuesday morning early Monday afternoon. We see the Storm Prediction Center attempting to map weakening storms to below severe weather levels by the time they arrive in central Michigan. The red area in Wisconsin and the black shaded area will likely see significant, severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The yellow shaded area along the Lake Michigan shoreline from Manistee south to the Indiana border has a 15% chance of isolated, damaging wind gusts. This would happen between 3 and 6 a.m.

The next forecast below the damaging wind forecast covers mostly south-central and southwestern Lower Michigan, showing the weakening storms.

No matter how strong the storm line is tomorrow morning, the storms will leave Michigan by 1 p.m.

The biggest danger in this situation is some wind gusts over 60 miles per hour, but there is also a chance of isolated heavy hail. The Storm Prediction Center currently sees no risk of tornadoes in Michigan.

Let’s monitor this situation together. My feeling is that it will be a line of severe storms along the shores of Lake Michigan that will then weaken as we move inland. All of this activity will occur on Tuesday from a few hours before to a few hours after sunrise.

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