Another sunny day – The Michigan Weather Center

Yesterday was a nice break from the heat and humidity. We had a high of 82 and a low of 62° in the morning. Dew points were back in the more comfortable 50s. After a sunny and pleasant day today, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms again tonight and Tuesday.

There are no mosquitoes in our area yet, but I have a sneaking suspicion that if the rain continues, they will come. We live in the woods near the Kalamazoo River, so it’s only a matter of time. I’ve noticed a lot more flies and a few deer flies, which are not common pests in our area.

SPC forecast for day two

NWS forecast

Weather forecast

1998: A severe thunderstorm produced hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and two tornadoes as it moved across Eaton and Jackson counties. The first tornado touched down east of Eaton Rapids, knocking down trees and power lines. The second tornado struck Layton Corners in north-central Jackson County. This tornado caused about half a million dollars in damage, as it caused minor damage to about a dozen homes.

On June 24, 1998, a series of supercell thunderstorms swept through southeast Michigan, bringing hailstones up to 1.75 inches in diameter and strong wind gusts. An observer in Ypsilanti estimated wind gusts of 75 mph! In the afternoon, one person was injured by a fallen tree branch. Damage in southeast Michigan totaled $82,000.

1944: On this day, the deadliest and strongest tornado in the state of West Virginia occurred. The Shinnston tornado, which left a path of destruction from Shinnston through Cheat Mountain and Maryland to the Allegheny Mountains in Pennsylvania, is the only tornado to cause F4 damage in West Virginia. This tornado killed 103 people. Click HERE for more information from the History Channel.

2010: A Category 2 tornado destroyed about 50 homes in Midland, Ontario, causing an estimated $15 million in damage. 12 people were reportedly injured. Ontario immediately provided up to $1 million in provincial assistance to help with cleanup and repairs.

Discussion of the forecast

- Mostly sunny today, stormy late tonight/Tuesday morning

Every model run of the GFS since last Wednesday has had some
flavor of an MCS developing over MN/northwest WI tonight and
moving southeast across WI and then over Lower MI. The CAMs caught
on to that scenario too over the weekend with some taking the MCS
south across WI and into northern IL. However, a few others
continue to take the MCS across MI...either northern Lower or
across the GRR cwa. The model consistency alone gives some
confidence that storms are going to form tonight to our northwest.
The question is where are they going to go.

Model thermodynamics/kinematics point toward a classic MCS
scenario in which an upper short wave induces low pressure over
the northern Plains in concert with a northward moving warm front.
A strong nocturnal LLJ then pushes moisture toward the front like
a fire hose with storms developing near the triple point of the
warm front/cold front. Models tonight show a 55 kt LLJ pointed at
the warm frontal boundary and moving east with time so that the
LLJ is over the cwa by 12z. Meanwhile, a 60-70 kt mid level jet
pushes the storms east along the warm front following mid level
thickness contours to the ESE. The key to whether we see storms
over the cwa tonight will be how far north they develop. If they
develop over southern MN, then they should be more inclined to
take a southeast turn across southern WI/northern IL. However, if
they develop farther north, chances are greater that they will
move across northern WI and cross the lake and move southeast
across the cwa after 08z.

There`s also some uncertainty surrounding how strong the storms
will be. Shear values are aoa 40 kts which suggests organization
is possible. Given the strong mid level winds, damaging wind is
the main threat. There is some mid level capping that would likely
be overcome by a mature MCS.

The entire CWA is in a marginal risk for severe storms tonight
and Tuesday. The southwest cwa is in a slight risk for severe
storms Tuesday due to the potential for storms to fire on the
trailing cold front that models suggest will be in the vicinity of
the WI/IL border east toward the I-94 corridor. There`s a lot of
uncertainty around whether storms will develop over the southern
cwa Tuesday afternoon, because it depends on what happens with the
Tuesday morning convection. It`s possible that storms Tuesday
morning essentially push the cold front south of the cwa and we
don`t get any redevelopment Tuesday afternoon. Less convective
activity late tonight would likely result in higher chances for
storms Tuesday afternoon.

Storms that develop over the southern cwa Tuesday afternoon will
have the potential to train as they move east which would result
in a heavy rain threat.

- Medium/High confidence in fair weather Wednesday and Thursday

The flow regime across the Great Lakes this week is dominated by two
shortwave troughs in quasi-zonal flow between subtropical ridging
across the southern CONUS and an upper low across central Canada.
THe first trough is moving through by Wednesday with showers ending
early and sfc high pressure building in with fine summer weather for
Thursday into early Friday.

- Medium confidence in showers and storms late this week

The surface high moves east with warm advection pattern developing
which could bring showers by Friday morning and more likely Friday
night and Saturday as the next trough moves through. The usual
ensemble spread at that time range makes the timing of the showers
and storms hard to pin down, but the highest chances appear to be on
Friday night. A severe weather threat is possible at that time as
Lower Michigan is briefly in the warm sector and model soundings
show 30 to 35 knots of shear ahead of the cold front.