The Art of Dynastic Trading

Like a tree losing its leaves in the fall and preparing for winter, or the spring flowers waiting to bloom, you notice one thing: the seasons are changing. And just like the weather signals the change of seasons, there are seasons and cycles in dynasty fantasy football too. It may sound obvious, but there are certain times of the fantasy football season when your league mates value older players to win a fantasy championship. On the other hand, however, once that trophy is won, the focus immediately shifts to the offseason. We look forward to the NFL Draft, where everyone will want to get a piece of the new NFL rookie class.

How to benefit from knowing the trading lifecycle of a dynasty

There’s a wonderful chart our own @ekballer created in his article “How to Play Dynasty Fantasy Football – Vol 3: Rookie Draft, Rookie Picks, and a Brief Scouting Primer” (see below) that shows the highs and lows of different players compared to draft pick values ​​throughout the calendar year. Starting with the start of the NFL season in September, you can see that player values ​​are at their highest as almost everyone in your league is most likely trying to compete and win a championship during the rigors of the fantasy season.

Almost immediately after the Super Bowl ends and the NFL Scouting Combine begins, we see a shift in value on the fantasy trade market toward the now coveted dynasty rookie draft picks. We continue to see these draft picks increase in value as we get closer to the NFL Draft. The highest value is when you’re close to the start of your fantasy rookie draft. Sometimes the maximum value can be had even when you’re pressed for time and waiting to make your selection! The offers could be pouring in as fantasy managers try to get the new NFL stars of tomorrow before they’ve even taken their team photos with their new employers.

Once you have a basic understanding of the player-pick dynamic, you can use it to your advantage. If it’s a week before the playoffs in your league and you have a .500 record and only an outside chance of making the playoffs, would it be better for your team to sell those rookie picks to acquire one or more players who can perhaps help you sneak into the playoffs? Or would the smarter mindset be to sell an aging player on your team, like Derrick Henry or Michael Evansfor more rookie draft picks with the prospect of a better future next season? Whatever decision you make, it most likely won’t be critical to your fantasy team’s composition and results in the long run. However, it will ultimately make you a better dynasty player, always striving to improve your team and find every possible advantage over the competition.

Analysis of real fantasy trades

In this series, I want to provide actionable advice from the knowledge of trading tips and tricks I’ve learned in over five years of Dynasty Fantasy Football. In each article, there will usually be a main theme or insight on things I’ve read, tried, accomplished, or failed to do myself to make successful trades in your leagues. But I want this to be interactive and involve the members of our Nerd Herd community. In each article, I’ll analyze some completed trades posted in our Discord chat. If you haven’t joined our Discord and are a Nerd Herd member, join here. Without further ado, let’s get started!

The format

To ensure the greatest possible consistency, I would prefer the following description when posting your trade:

• League size, type (1 quarterback (QB) or superflex (SF)), format (lineup or best ball), number of starters, points (0.5 points per reception (PPR), PPR, 1.5 tight end (TE) bonus), team status (contender, rebuild)
• Example: 12 teams, SF, best ball, start 10, PPR, 2.0TEP, defending champion wants to reload

The first trade we will look at was submitted by @jbergo.

• 12tm, SF, Start 10, .5PPR, 1.0TEP, Contender
• Context: Addison was a wide receiver (WR) 4/5 behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marvin Harrison Jr.Drake London and Rome Odunze. Good as a QB and TE, mediocre as a running back (RB), but happy in the short term. They made the trade for more short-term WR depth because potential starters are extremely young/unpredictable, especially given Addison’s potential growing pains at the hands of McCarthy. I hope there’s a window for Lloyd next year.

Tear down:

This was the perfect starting point and context to evaluate this trade. According to the current consensus rankings from Dynasty Nerds Jordan Addison is listed as WR29 and player 68 overall. Steve Diggs is WR37 (85 overall) and Lloyd is RB20 (98 overall). As Jbergo mentioned, his team is extremely young at the wide receiver position. His “oldest” of the group is Amon-Ra St. Brown at 24.6. He has average running back value on his team, but enough to score points in the short term. This trade to me is the perfect execution of a move down from a slightly higher rated player to one who ranks just below but is expected to produce similarly for at least next season. Some may argue that Diggs is on the north side of 30 and is on the last leg of his NFL career.

On the contrary, I believe the connection with CJ Stroud will allow Diggs to continue to produce at the level he has shown over the past few years in Buffalo, where he finished all four seasons with a ranking of at least WR9 (in PPR leagues).

Jordan Addison finished his rookie season as the WR23, which is pretty impressive. This was a Minnesota offense that averaged just under 4,200 yards passing and 554 pass attempts over the last five years. Minnesota has been an extremely pass-happy offense over the last two seasons, finishing in the top five in both categories. Now Addison will be either rookie quarterback JJ McCarthywho ranked 53rd in college football in total pass attempts last season. Sam DarnoldA failed 3rd overall pick who will be playing on his fourth team in the last five seasons is the other option.

Whoever gets the job as starting quarterback in Minnesota, it is expected that there will be a more balanced offensive plan with fewer passes than in previous years. Another factor is TJ Hockensonwho is recovering from a torn ACL. He could be limited to start the season and possibly start the year on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. Addison could be the second target in this offense during Hockenson’s absence. However, if he is healthy, I believe Addison is the third option for Minnesota.

The final part of this trade is a rookie RB for the Green Bay Packers, Lloyd, the son of Marshawn Lloyd. Lloyd averaged 7.1 yards per carry (YPC) last year, his junior season at the University of Southern California (USC). Lloyd is a solid running back, 5’9″ and 215 lbs. He will be paired with the returning AJ Dillon for 2nd place on the RB depth chart behind newly signed workhorse Josh Jacobs.

Josh Jacobs signed a 4-year, $48 million contract as a free agent with the Green Bay Packers this offseason. The contract includes a possible out for the 2025 season, with a dead cap hit of $9.375 million. If Jacobs struggles with his age and workload, Lloyd could be the Packers’ starting running back in 2025. That being said, it was a great trade to get two players for one and combine a veteran NFL WR with a young group to score equal fantasy points this season and remain a contender, while also getting another young player that can help in the future.

Trade rating: 9 out of 10

Thanks for reading my first article on Dynasty Nerds! If you enjoyed this article, please leave a comment or follow me on X @Pistol_Pete026 to talk about Dynasty Fantasy Football. And again, please use promo code *insert here* for 15% off. Hope to see you in the Discord!