First Pitch: Elite young pitchers and their current values

I introduced the concept of current values ​​in my candidate rankings this year.

Most junior rankings focus on a future value. This becomes confusing when paired with an estimated arrival time to the majors. As an example, if you go to the FanGraphs page for Jared Jonesyou will see that its expected date is 2024 and its future value is 55.

The ETA is obviously correct since Jones is in the majors this year. The problem is that there is no ETA for future value.

The future as a concept doesn’t actually exist. The only thing that exists is the present and the memory of the past. Future ratings convey the idea that there is a period of time when Jones will inevitably be an above-average starter in the majors, which is reflected in the 55 FV rating. As Pirates fans know all too well, that may never happen, as nothing is guaranteed for young players in the future.

I’m highlighting Jones because he’s pitched well this year. He has a 3.66 ERA in 86 innings and a 3.81 FIP. He’s struck out 26.5% of hitters and has a 7.1% walk rate.

The league average ERA/FIP in 2024 is 4.02. The average strikeout rate is 22.2% and the average walk rate is 8.3%. By all of these measures, Jones is above average.

When focusing on skilled pitchers, the field narrows down to 73 players. Of that group, Jones ranks 51st in ERA, 42nd in FIP, 17th in strikeouts, and 37th in walks. This stat tells the story a little better. The overall results are below average for the group, but the strikeouts make him one of the more attractive pitchers for future results.

From a league perspective, Jones is above average right now. From a comparison perspective to his peers in the league, he is below average. It’s not bad to be below average among the best in the league. Personally, I would like to expand the list of qualified pitchers to ~150 pitchers, giving you the top 5 for each team. That qualified list would include every pitcher with 40+ innings this year.

In this expanded group, Jones ranks 80th in ERA, 66th in FIP, 27th in strikeout rate, and 70th in walk rate. He’s about average in ERA, slightly above average in FIP, and again, his strikeout rate is among the best in the game.

Jones would currently have a current value of 50. This does not change his future value of 55+. It just confirms that he is currently closer to league average in his rookie season.

I write this a day after Jones pitched seven innings, allowing two runs on three hits, with three walks and eight strikeouts. That’s an above-average showing and helped the Pirates beat the Rays on Saturday. Jones gets the higher Future Value rating because of those types of starts.

Despite that performance, Jones has a 5.00 ERA in his last five starts due to two misfires. That will happen early in his career, which is why he has a current value of 50. He can give you 55+ valuable starts, but he can also dip below 50 in some starts. The average is 50 this season.

I look at Mitch Keller as a great example of how current value and future value differ. Keller had a 1.1 fWAR in 2021, his first extended season in the major leagues. He followed that up with a 2.1 WAR the next year, and improved to 3.3 last year. In some ways, you could upgrade Keller’s current value from 45 to 50 to 55, where he was considered promising. It took him a couple of seasons and a lot of adjustments to his pitch selection to reach a current value of 55.

The good thing about Jones is that he’s starting so high up. He has a chance to further his development in the same way as Keller, who reached the 55 class earlier in his career. Jones has an elite pitch combination of a 70s fastball and a 70s slider, but he needs to improve his curveball and changeup when one or both of those elite pitches aren’t effective. This will help reduce the bad starts that drag down his appearances in the 55+ class.

The combination of ETA and Future Value gives the impression that a player should reach his Future Value in a given year. This causes concern among fans when a player like Jones has natural struggles in his rookie season. Jones will have some poor starts this year and could end up closer to a 50 finish by the end of the season. His Future Value is still theoretically higher.

At this point, Jones has reached a current value good enough to pitch at the major league level, with the chance to develop into a higher future value at the MLB level. That’s how it works with any player.

Of course, the future isn’t real. Not every player will reach a projected future value. Some may stay the same, others could decline. Based on what we’ve seen from Jones so far, I think he will continue to improve and reach his higher future value. If I had to give a FVETA, I’d say Jones could be a 55-grade performer by the end of the 2025 season. Until then, he’s a guy who belongs in the MLB rotation to further his development, and there’s no need to panic if he doesn’t look like a 55-grade pitcher.

The same applies to Paul Skenesalthough I think Skenes’ current rating could be 55+ while we wait to see what a future 65 rating looks like for a Pittsburgh pitcher.

Depth is on the way

Indianapolis had three rehab appearances last night. Martin Perez threw five innings as a starter, managing up to 63 pitches. The left-handed starter could return to the MLB rotation with these numbers, as the Pirates have used a bullpen approach in his place. He could expand his pitches and innings to MLB level in this role, coupled with Carmen Mlodzinski to last at least six innings. Or the Pirates could keep him for one more outing to buy even more time.

Joey Beard started his first game behind the plate in his rehab appearance in Triple-A. Bart should take over as the starting catcher in Pittsburgh once he is healthy enough to return.

Ji-Hwan Bae played an entire game as a designated hitter. Bae hasn’t played well enough to earn a spot in the major leagues, but remains a reserve option in Triple-A.

The Pirates have recently seen an increase in the strength of their upper ranks. Joshua Palacios recently returned from injury and has been hitting well. They have also signed experienced pitchers Jake Woodford And Luis Cessa recently, increasing pitching depth.

There will be further reinforcements for the Pirates on Sunday. Michael Burrows will begin rehab in Bradenton, moving one step closer to returning to Triple-A after Tommy John surgery in early 2023. Burrows is expected to have a limited innings total overall, and it will be interesting to see if the Pirates use him as a reliever or simply let him rehab this year.

Pirate Observation Clock

Charles McAdoo was recently promoted to Altoona and looked great in his first game. McAdoo hit a home run, a double and had a nice net gem at third base. Read more about the 13th overall pick in 2023 in the latest Pirates Prospect Watch:

Pirates Prospect Watch: Charles McAdoo hits home runs and has a web gem in his Double-A debut