Agents weigh in on Jordan Love: How a small sample size could impact Packers deal

The Green Bay Packers began training camp on Monday with the news that Jordan Love would be “held back” while the team continues to negotiate a new contract with its quarterback. Love has been at practice, interacting with coaches and players and participating in organized team activities this summer, but he and his agent don’t want to take any chances now.

It makes sense not to risk injury, as a new contract is in the works that could break records. Quarterback contracts keep breaking new salary barriers. The most recent was Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who signed a five-year, $275 million extension in June that included a $37.5 million signing bonus and $200 million in guaranteed pay. Lawrence’s average annual value of $55 million is tied with Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and is the highest in NFL history.

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Whether Love can match Lawrence’s numbers remains to be seen, but it’s safe to say agent David Mulugheta will at least put him in that range. The question that arises is whether Love has proven he’s worth it. With just 18 appearances in his career – and only the last 50% of those have been elite (his final 10 games of last season, including the playoffs: 2,667 yards passing, 68.7% completion percentage, 21 touchdown passes, three interceptions, 108.2 QB rating, 7-3 record) – such a big deal seems like a gamble for Green Bay.

Will the small sample size affect whether Love gets the salary he expects? This question was asked as part of The athletics sixth annual Agent Survey, where several agents were asked a series of questions and anonymity was maintained to see how they see the situation. (The full Agent Survey will be released in August.)

One agent believes Love has done enough to prove he’s worth it.

“He’s getting paid,” the agent said. “Love is young and has been in this building for several years. He’s shown that the playoff stage is not too big for him and has never complained about being left sitting. I see no reason why they wouldn’t make him the highest-paid quarterback, or at least close to the highest-paid.”

Others were not so sure whether the sample size was sufficient.

“The Packers are in a tough spot,” one agent said. “We know Love sat behind (Aaron) Rodgers for years, but there aren’t many games to watch. The Packers should be covering themselves with every new contract. Pretty scary.”

“My thought: Two years at an average of $45 million – fully guaranteed,” suggested another agent. “That gives the team more time to evaluate and gives Love a quick chance at another contract.”

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Another pointed out the very different perspectives of the agent and the team.

“As an agent, I’m fighting for $55 million a year,” the agent said, pointing to the bar Lawrence and Burrow have set. “As a team, I haven’t seen enough. Not too long ago, people were questioning Love.”

Among other things, there was agreement that in reality, teams will have to grit their teeth and pay the market price for a top quarterback.

“There’s a lack of name recognition, starts and experience – none of that matters at this position,” one agent said. “No player has as much leverage as a quarterback. Even if you have an answer, you pay for it.”

Another added: “What’s Plan B for the Packers? Green Bay has time with franchise tags if needed. As for the agent mentality, the longer you wait, the more the team will pay.”

Another agent disagreed that time was on the Packers’ side.

“I didn’t think he was the right fit for the first half of last season,” the agent said. “Love was impressive the rest of the season. This season we’ll see what he is. The problem is Green Bay may not be able to wait for a new contract. The agent should be pushing now. The team should be worried that this could be another Kyler Murray scenario where a team pays too much too soon.”

Another agent simply said, “The big deal is coming, no matter how big the sample is.”

“From a player/agent perspective, the number of starts doesn’t matter,” the agent said. “Love will have the highest AAV once a deal is done.”

(Photo: Dan Powers / USA Today)