Dangerous is the word in a three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates

Something interesting has happened. The Pirates have become a dangerous team. Whether you agree with that opinion or not, before the Cardinals’ series against the Braves, they talked about how likely it was that the Cardinals would start 2-4, and while there was some disagreement, it seemed more likely to them that they would lose 2 of 3 to the Pirates than to the Braves. This was before one of the starters was Bryce Elder and when Max Fried was scheduled to be the Sunday starter.

Again, it doesn’t matter if you agree, the fact that there is a discussion that the Pirates would be a more difficult team to win a series against than the Braves at any point in the season would have been unthinkable earlier this year. And they may well be right. We will certainly encounter better starting pitchers.

But there’s the pesky offense. The Pirates don’t have much of it. Cardinals fans know that the offense really has to step up to win. The Pirates have the 27th best offense in baseball according to wRC+. They strike out often. They’re 6th in all of baseball in K%. They don’t have much power either (.139 ISO). Not a good combination.

The Pirates’ best hitter has been Bryan Reynolds, who was selected to the NL All-Star team and has played like an MVP candidate over the past two months. Since the beginning of June, he has a wRC+ of 183. No typo. The Cardinals have kept him in check in that regard. In the six games he has faced the Cardinals – which have come during that time period – he has hit 6 for 25 with two doubles, a triple, a home run and a walk. I’m pretty confident that if he maintains his .269 OBP against the Cardinals, the Cardinals will win this series.

The Pirates have two starters with above-average batting lines and two guys who currently have above-average lines in their starting lineup as well, but we’ll see if that stays that way. In the former, both Andrew McCutchen (full-time DH and leadoff hitter) and Oneil Cruz are about even with a 108 wRC+ and 109 wRC+. In the latter, catcher Joey Bart has a 129 wRC+ but a .318 xwOBA and a career wRC+ of 86 with 27, while Joshua Palacios has a 122 wRC+ after just 45 batting appearances.

Other than that, not much offense. It looks like the offense never quite clicks for Ke’Bryan Hayes, who has a wRC+ of 71 this year. Rowdy Tellez has been poor at first base aside from his one series against the Cardinals with a wRC+ of 86. Nick Gonzales has a wRC+ of 92, but most of that is in May. Since the beginning of June, he has a wRC+ of 67. He is their cleanup hitter. Jack Suwinski has a wRC+ of 62, although he might be able to improve on that in July with a wRC+ of 113. Connor Joe has a wRC+ of 102, but doesn’t seem to play every day, mostly against left-handed hitters.

As for the Pirates bullpen, David Bednar started the season poorly, but it seemed like he had insane bad luck. But he just hasn’t been very good. He’s almost 30 K% in his career (probably even before this season), but this year it’s only 24.5% and since May it’s only 20.5%. When a batter makes contact, there’s a good chance it’s in the air, which is why he’s allowed six home runs in 33 innings and hasn’t had a lot of bad luck (12 HR/FB%). I’m not sure what’s wrong with him.

I’m pretty sure I know what’s wrong with setup man Aroldis Chapman: age. The 36-year-old is still getting his strikeouts (36.6%), but he’s walking a fifth of batters (19.9 BB%), resulting in a 4.04 ERA. Kyle Nicolas has been solid, albeit walking a lot, and he allowed three unearned runs yesterday. Former top-100 prospect Quinn Priester has been moved to the bullpen, where he has a 25 K% and a .256 wOBA allowed. Colin Holderman has a 1.72 ERA, and the Cardinals have actually scored two of his seven earned runs this year. His advanced stats are good, but significantly less impressive. I imagine if the Pirates had a lead and it were up to them, those would be the only pitchers the Cards would see.

As for the rest, Carmen Mlodzinski was OK but nothing special and he was mostly used for more than one inning (22 G, 30.1 IP). The same goes for Josh Fleming, who actually isn’t very good, doesn’t strike anyone out (13.4 K%) and walks a lot (10.2%) but gets groundballs. Dennis Santana actually struck out 27.9% of batters as a Pirate (he was acquired from the Yankees on waivers mid-season), but the ERA is still not great. Of the 12 games as a Pirate, 8 were losses and three of the wins were blowouts, so he wasn’t really used in important situations. (He was the loser in the extra-inning game against the Cards)

Both Bailey Falter and Jared Jones are on the injured list, so we won’t see either starter. Also, fun fact: former Cardinal Marco Gonzales actually pitched yesterday, so we miss him, too.

Monday – 5:40 p.m.

Andre Pallante (4.21 ERA/4.06 FIP/3.98 xFIP) vs. Mitch Keller (3.46 ERA/3.79 FIP/4.01 xFIP)

The Cardinals have seen Mitch Keller twice and scored 10 runs against him, one of them unearned. He arguably pitched better than the line was at the end of his last start, with five strikeouts, no walks, and a 3.54 xFIP, but he allowed two home runs, had a .412 BABIP against him, and a 3.54 xFIP. His first start was bad, though, as he also allowed two home runs and had a .300 BABIP against him.

This could be a good matchup for Pallante. The Pirates’ lineup against right-handed pitchers consists of four left-handers and one switch hitter. If the Pirates are smart, Connor Joe should start and Reynolds should hit right-handed. I’m curious to see what their lineup looks like. Pallante has a .396 wOBA against right-handed batters (he’s better as a starter – I think .349, but that’s still very bad) and a .235 wOBA against left-handed batters.

Tuesday – 5:40 p.m.

Paul Skenes (1.90 ERA/2.57 FIP/2.25 xFIP) vs. Lance Lynn (4.39 ERA/4.42 FIP/4.25 xFIP)

It’s not great when the matchup makes it look like one of the games is automatically lost. It’s not. At least not literally. But it doesn’t get much more one-sided than that. Still, I feel like every time I give up on him (which I didn’t, even though I gave up on this game), Lynn gets a great start from his arsenal.

Wednesday – 11:35 am

Martin Perez (5.61 ERA/4.94 FIP/4.50 xFIP) vs. TBD

For better or worse, if you use two starters in the regular rotation for the doubleheader (instead of the Braves doing it), you’re going to need a new starter four days later. As far as I can tell, the Cardinals have a few options, at least on Monday morning.

Matthew Liberatore hasn’t pitched yet, and if they don’t use him in either of the first two games, it looks like he’ll be the pick, so that’s a pretty easy call. Gordon Graceffo hasn’t pitched since the Memphis break. And if they want to make an unexpected pick, Michael McGreevy pitched on Friday, so he could start, too. He’d have to be added to the 40-man roster, but he’ll have to after the season anyway, and Nick Raposo is still on the 40-man roster. Good for him, but that guy will get DFA’d as soon as necessary.

Perez knocked out the Cardinals last time, but he’s a bad pitcher, so even if you don’t know the Cards’ starter, this is probably the game you can win the most. So we’ll win Skenes’ start and obviously lose this game.