Europe introduces conscription as threat of major war with Russia grows

CNN —

Before Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many, including Kiev, were skeptical that a major war in Europe could occur. More than two years later, another once-unthinkable change to conscription is underway.

Faced with the growing threat from Moscow, several European countries have reinstated or expanded conscription. These measures are part of a series of moves to strengthen their defenses that are likely to be further tightened.

“We are coming to the realization that we may need to adjust the way we mobilize for war, the way we produce military equipment, and the way we recruit and train personnel,” said Robert Hamilton, director of Eurasian studies at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, who served as an officer in the U.S. Army for 30 years.

“It is a tragic truth that we are now in 2024 and have to grapple with the question of how to mobilize millions of people to potentially throw them into the meat grinder of war. But that is exactly where Russia has brought us,” he said.

The risk of a major war in Europe has increased after Russian President Vladimir Putin “finally resorted to open conflict” in Ukraine to pursue his goal of “restoring the Soviet empire,” said retired General Wesley Clark, who served as NATO’s supreme commander in Europe.

“So we now have a war in Europe that we never thought we would see again,” said Clark, who commanded NATO forces during the Kosovo war. “Whether this is a new cold war or a looming hot war is unclear,” he continued, but “it is a very immediate warning to NATO that we need to rebuild our defenses.”

Compulsory military service is part of these efforts, he says.

In a number of European countries, conscription was abolished after the end of the Cold War. However, in some countries – notably in Scandinavia and the Baltics – it has been reintroduced in recent years, mainly because of the Russian threat. In some countries, those who fail to report for duty can be fined or even imprisoned.

Latvia is the last country to introduce compulsory military service. Conscription was reinstated on 1 January this year after it was abolished in 2006. Male citizens are drafted within 12 months of reaching the age of 18 or completing their education.

“At first there was a lot of resistance,” says Arturs Pīlācis, a 20-year-old student. He is not yet required to report for military service, but has voluntarily completed a month-long military course.

But ultimately, “the need for a state defense service is clear,” he said. “There was actually no option where we could stand by and believe that everything would continue as before just because there is unprovoked aggression in Ukraine.”

In April, Norway presented an ambitious long-term plan that would nearly double the country’s defense budget and add more than 20,000 conscripts, employees and reservists to the armed forces.

“We need a defence that meets the evolving security environment,” said Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.

Norway has compulsory military service and in 2015 the country became the first member of the NATO defence alliance to require men and women to do military service on equal terms.

Jens Bartnes, a 26-year-old business student, completed his military training at the age of 19. “I’m glad I did it. I learned a lot this year that I wouldn’t have learned otherwise – about myself, about my physical and mental limits and abilities, I think, but also about teamwork. It’s a completely different way of life,” he said.

“I am ready to fight for my country if necessary because I believe in the values ​​on which Norwegian society is built and I believe that these values ​​of inclusion, equality and democracy are worth fighting for,” Bartnes added.

Max Henrik Arvidson, 25, was drafted into the Norwegian military service for a year between 2019 and 2020. Like Bartnes, he considers military service an essential duty.

“I know that we can only counter further Russian aggression if we continue to supply Ukraine with weapons and aid while remaining strong together with NATO as a whole and the European Union.”

Conscription is also being discussed in other European countries where there is currently no conscription. In Britain, the Conservatives brought the idea of ​​conscription into their ill-fated election campaign.

But perhaps the most surprising change is taking place in Germany, which has harbored an aversion to militarization since the end of World War II. For the first time since the Cold War, Germany this year updated its plan for when conflict breaks out in Europe, and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in June put forward a proposal for a new voluntary military service. “We must be ready for war by 2029,” he said.

“We are experiencing a heated debate right now. And this is the first step,” says Sean Monaghan, visiting professor in the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “This doesn’t happen overnight, it’s a major mental shift.”

Not everyone is ready to answer the call. In Lithuania, for example, opinions about military service among students vary, says Paulius Vaitiekus, chairman of the Lithuanian Student Union.

Since the country reintroduced conscription in 2015 due to a “changed geopolitical situation”, approximately 3,500 to 4,000 Lithuanians between the ages of 18 and 26 are drafted for a period of nine months each year.

Vaitiekus said students had started initiatives to send aid to the Ukrainian front lines. There was “a shift in the mindset of youth towards more engagement, although not necessarily through conscription,” he added.

With conscription remaining an unpopular issue in some countries, NATO is struggling to meet its new goal of having 300,000 troops ready for action within a month and another half a million troops available within six months, Monaghan said.

“While NATO has said it has already achieved this goal, the EU has said its members will struggle. NATO depends on American forces to achieve its goal. European allies must find new ways to recruit personnel. Something has to happen here,” he said. Another problem is that this goal would only allow NATO to fight a relatively short conflict of six months at most, Monaghan added.

One possible solution would be a more flexible and modern military.

Finland, one of NATO’s newest members, has the capacity to mobilise more than 900,000 reservists, with 280,000 soldiers ready to respond immediately if needed. However, in peacetime, the Finnish Armed Forces employ only about 13,000 people, including civilian staff.

“Finland is a good example” because its reserve force can be integrated into a very small active force, said Hamilton of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Historically, he explained, Finland has been “sandwiched” between NATO and the Soviet Union and has not been allied with either, so it must be able to defend itself alone.

Norway and Sweden, the newest NATO member, follow similar models; both maintain significant numbers of reservists, although not as many as Finland.

Sweden, where conscription is now also gender-neutral, has called up around 7,000 people in 2024. According to the Swedish Armed Forces, the number will rise to 8,000 by 2025.

Since the war in Ukraine began, “we see that both knowledge and attitudes have changed,” she said.

“In Sweden, conscription has existed since 1901, so in a way it is part of our culture,” says Marinette Nyh Radebo, communications manager at the agency that helps screen recruits and reports to the Ministry of Defense.

“When conscription was reintroduced, we initially said that conscription was good for your CV, for example when applying for a new job,” said Radebo. “But today our communication is more like: This is a duty that you have to fulfill for Sweden.”

In response to the growing threat from Moscow, the NATO alliance has revised its strategy and strengthened its capabilities over the past decade.

Russia’s all-out attack on Ukraine in 2022, which followed its support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine and its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, inevitably prompted allies to rethink their readiness for war and strengthen their defenses.

“Since 2014, NATO has undergone the most significant transformation of our collective defense in a generation,” NATO spokeswoman Farah Dakhlallah told CNN. “We have implemented the most comprehensive defense plans since the Cold War and currently have more than 500,000 troops at high readiness.”

However, there are calls for the allies to develop their capabilities further and more quickly.

While NATO allies are “definitely ready to fight tonight,” the question remains whether they are prepared for a protracted war like the one in Ukraine, Monaghan said, noting that there is still work to be done in many areas, including industrial capacity, defense spending and societal resilience – which is where the question of conscription comes into play.

The way in which military personnel are recruited and trained is a decision for individual nations, Dakhlallah said, adding: “About a third of NATO members have some form of conscription.”

“Some allies are considering introducing conscription. However, as an alliance, we do not impose conscription,” said Dakhlallah. “What is important is that allies continue to have capable armed forces to protect our territory and our people.”

In addition to the fighting in Ukraine, experts say Russia has also launched a hybrid war across Europe that includes attacks on infrastructure, cyberattacks, disinformation, sabotage, election interference and the weaponization of migration.

“It has only gotten more aggressive,” Monaghan said. “It means that NATO allies are facing a very different geopolitical situation than they have in recent decades.”

The situation could be further complicated by the US presidential election in November. The situation would look very different if former President Donald Trump – who has said he would encourage Russia to “do whatever it wants” with any NATO country that does not comply with the bloc’s guidelines on defence spending – returns to the White House.

“I think there is a great deal of understanding among NATO military leaders that they need to work together, and the desire to do so is there,” Clark said.

This year, World War II veterans gathered for D-Day commemorations, some perhaps for the last time. Their descendants may now have to shoulder the kind of responsibility they had hoped would never be needed again.

“I think young people in Europe and the United States will realize that this generation – like the generation that fought in World War II – did not ask to be the ‘Greatest Generation,’ but that circumstances imposed this burden on them,” Clark said.

“In democracies, we don’t like to prepare for wars, we don’t want to think about these things,” he said. “But I believe people will react to the circumstances they see.”