Are we facing World War III? Putin again threatens nuclear war over Ukraine

Summary and key points: Recent nuclear threats by Russian President Vladimir Putin against Ukraine and NATO have raised concerns. Despite these threats, a nuclear strike seems unlikely, with the war currently favoring Russia, whose armed forces are on the rise, and Ukraine’s recent counteroffensive stalling.

– However, Putin’s unpredictability and the Kremlin’s willingness to take drastic measures, which has been repeatedly expressed in the past, make future measures uncertain.

– If the situation worsens for Russia, the risk of nuclear escalation could increase, and world leaders are watching Putin’s next move with suspicion.

Putin’s nuclear threats: Will Russia’s advantage in Ukraine keep them in check?

Are you sure that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine?

If you ask this question in Washington, DC and other European capitals, you get contradictory answers.

Putin and Kremlin representatives regularly threaten not only Ukraine but also NATO with nuclear weapons.

The most recent such threat came yesterday during a joint press conference with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un in North Korea.

Nuclear threat from Putin … again

Putin has hinted in recent press statements that he could authorize the Russian military to launch a – most likely tactical – nuclear strike against Ukraine if the war turns against him.

“Putin has implicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons if the West allows Ukraine to decisively defeat Russia in order to undermine the international community’s coherent strategic vision for supporting Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War said in a recent update on the war in Ukraine.

Putin’s coded remarks on the nuclear program were likely a response to recent comments by NATO officials about the need for increased nuclear readiness with regard to Russia.

The West has prepared for a Russian nuclear strike before, and the CIA worked on contingency plans to prevent such an attack. At this point, however, it seems highly unlikely that Putin will order a nuclear strike, for one simple reason: his military is on the rise.

Currently, the war is going in Moscow’s favor. The last large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive last summer failed to achieve the intended operational breakthrough, although Kyiv sent its best elite units into battle, equipped with Western weapons systems such as Leopard 2, Challenger 2 and M1 Abrams main battle tanks and M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.

Not only did the Ukrainian military fail to achieve an operational breakthrough, but the Russian forces also launched a counteroffensive and are now exerting pressure on the Ukrainians along the contact line.

Russia wins in Ukraine – but at a high price

The Russian armed forces are suffering devastating losses. In May alone, Moscow lost almost 40,000 men, or more than 1,000 per day, killed, wounded or captured. In total, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry estimates – and this is largely confirmed by Western intelligence agencies – that Moscow has lost more than 530,000 men in the fighting so far. Losses in heavy weapons systems are also high: the Russian military loses more than 100 main battle tanks, artillery guns, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, as well as unmanned aerial systems, every day.

However, Russia has demonstrated a remarkable ability to marshal troops. Although the Russian military has lost more than double the original invasion force, there are still 500,000 troops stationed in Ukraine. Their quality may not be the best, but they are sufficient for the Kremlin’s purposes.

So the Kremlin has no reason to use a nuclear weapon against Ukraine at the moment. But if the situation on the ground changes, that is another question, and no one can predict exactly what a dictator like Putin can do.

About the author: Biography and military expertise

Stavros Atlamazoglou is an experienced defense journalist specializing in Special Operations and a veteran of the Greek Army (military service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army Headquarters). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, SandboxxAnd SOFREP.

All images are Creative Commons.

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