Find great deals on Ohio Derby day

Fans of my fair odds series are familiar with the concept of over-betting on the most likely winner, and that is no different at Saturday’s Dr. TF Classen Memorial at Thistledown, where a horse from the field poses the greatest threat to win but is unlikely to offer any added value at this point.

Lemon Mousse ticks many boxes in terms of form cycle and travel forecast, but her start, which includes Near Perfect and Goodness Sakes, should be a favourite in a 5-2 morning bet. That price makes her a difficult one to back.

Lofty Cowtown is at 20:1 on the morning line and Nation of horse racingAccording to the AI-generated predicted odds line, she will definitely reach that price, and that’s music to Mike Shutty’s ears.

“This is admittedly a gamble pick, but there will be value against the favorite,” Shutty writes in this week’s Super Screener. “She won three races in a row last year before fading away pretty badly towards the end of 2023. Her return from a six-month layoff now comes with a bullet workout two races ago, which gives us optimism that she can return to top form. She’s expected to be a couple of lengths off the pace, and if she’s ready to go fresh, she’ll be the one to come in late and cause a huge upset.”

Super Screener is available every week and If you buy now, you can win every week through Breeders’ Cup plus Power Picks and Horses to Single every day. Power Picks is a 40 percent winner at the current Thistledown meeting and has had a positive ROI at New York Racing Association tracks Aqueduct and Saratoga since April 1. Horses to Single is doing similarly well at NYRA facilities, winning 13 of 24 races during that time and posting a positive ROI of 22 percent.