Draft Kings Best Ball: The worst value in each round

We’ve already highlighted DraftKings’ best-ball lobby with an overview article, a piece on tournament strategy, a cheat sheet for Weeks 15-17, and a look at exploiting WR ADP on the site.

There are currently many leagues to choose from on the site, including Sit & Go and tournament options ranging in size from three to twelve teams, including the DraftKings Flagship Contest – the NFL Best Ball $15M Millionaire. So head over to DraftKings and start drafting!

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In this article, I’ll go round by round and identify the worst values/players that I’m cutting out of DraftKings best-ball contests based on current ADP. Let’s get started.

Round 1

Puka NacuaRams (ADP: WR6, 9.3)

Last year he had a big breakout as the WR6 in PPR per game rating, but Puka Nacua may not be able to do that again. Cooper Kupp is at full health, which was not the case for most of 2023, and in the 11 games they were both active last season, Nacua had 92 targets to Kupp’s 89. It feels like Nacua is getting over-targeted when LA might have more of a 1a/1b situation, rather than Nacua as the WR1 and Kupp as the WR2.

round 2

Nico CollinsTexans (ADP: WR11, 17.2)

After ranking 7th among WRs in PPR points per game last season, drafters are now selecting Nico Collins in the second round with pick 2.05. The arrival of Stefon Diggs and a healthy Tank Dell could cause some problems for Collins returning that kind of value, especially in PPR points. He’s a YAC machine and ranked sixth among WRs last season with 549 yards after the catch, but he’ll need a big piece of the target pie to be worth his current draft spot.

Round 3

DJ MooreBears (ADP: WR23, 34.0)

I don’t think anyone is really overpriced this round, but I had to pick someone, so it’s DJ Moore. Chicago’s WR room is loaded with Moore, Keenan Allen, and rookie Rome Odunze, and they’re catching balls from an unproven rookie QB. I’d prefer Moore as a Round 4 option in PPR scoring, but he’s fine here if you believe in first-year Caleb Williams.

Round 4

Zay FlowersRavens (ADP: WR25, 39.3)

In his rookie season, Zay Flowers was the star when TE Mark Andrews was benched, finishing as the WR31 in total PPR points. Technically, he’s the WR1 for Baltimore, but the sophomore is likely the No. 2 option for Lamar Jackson behind Andrews. When the TE was healthy from Weeks 2-10 last season, he scored 14.6 PPR points per game on 6.6 targets, while Flowers turned 6.2 targets per game into 10.4 PPR points per game during that span. If Derrick Henry is brought in in 2024, it might be harder for Flowers to regain his current early fourth-round value.

Round 5

CJ Stroud, Texans (ADP: QB5, 57.1)

The sophomore had an incredible first year in the league and is surrounded by a lot of talent, but a fifth-round price tag is just too high for a non-mobile QB. A similar performance can be achieved with rushing upside from Dak Prescott or Kyler Murray, both selected two rounds later in the seventh round.

Round 6

Jayden ReedPackers (ADP: WR34, 60.8)

For Jayden Reed, a decline in both quantity and production is a real possibility in 2024. Christian Watson missed half the season, and without him, Reed averaged 15.9 PPR points per game, which dropped to 11.3 when Watson was on the field. There are plenty of mouths to feed on the Packers offense, including new RB Josh Jacobs and two healthy TEs, so a reduction in targets for Reed is a real possibility. The Green Bay WR leaves the boards early in the sixth round at WR34 and is rated as 4for4’s WR46 in PPR scoring.

Round 7

Evan EngramJaguars (ADP: TE8, 72.7)

This area of ​​the TE draft hasn’t been great in the past, and unless I’m paying for an elite player, waiting is my preferred strategy. Evan Engram is coming off a solid season, but the passing game is crowded in Jacksonville, which could affect his performance in 2024. Last year with Christian Kirk, the TE had 7.5 targets per game, which he converted into 10.4 PPR points per game, then he jumped to 10.4 targets per game without him, which translated to a whopping 18.5 PPR points in those games. With Kirk back and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. now on the roster, expecting another 143-target season is a bit much.

Round 8

Jameson WilliamsLions (ADP: WR47, 91.6)

He’s finally healthy again and out of an NFL suspension, but that ADP feels high for Jameson Williams. In 19 games, the Detroit wide receiver has only topped six targets once (7), and without consistent volume and Williams being more of a big-play archetype, he’s a better player in the best ball who shouldn’t be drafted with a single-digit ADP. I’m taking Jamo in the late ninth to tenth round.

Rounds 9-11

Javonte WilliamsBroncos (ADP32: RB, 110.7)

Last year, things didn’t go as expected for Javonte Williams (RB33 in PPR/game), and even though he’s another year off from a serious knee injury, there’s plenty of competition on Denver’s RB roster. Even if he gets the bulk of the action ahead of Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, Semaje Perine and Blake Watson, the Broncos likely won’t be good enough on offense to make up for the value. Denver is currently projected to average just 19.6 points per game in 2024, one of the lowest in the NFL.

Rounds 12-14

Cole KmetBears (ADP: TE15, 136.6)

I understand we’re in TE2 territory now, but I’d rather have Pat Freiermuth at the same ADP or even Taysom Hill almost a full round later. Cole Kmet had productive moments last year with anemic offensive options in Chicago other than DJ Moore, but now that Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze are in town, it’s highly unlikely the Bears will target Kmet enough to bring back capital from the 12th round draft.

Rounds 15-17

Malachi CorleyJets (ADP: WR77, 183.8)

I support the strategy of taking rookies late in drafts, but not Malachi Corley. The 22-year-old falls into the realm of gadget players and is more akin to a RB than a WR in his play style due to his college history at Western Kentucky. Aaron Rodgers can pass the ball to Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and now Mike Williams, and it doesn’t look like there’s enough fruit left on the tree for Corely to be selected in the 16th round.

Rounds 18-20

Frank Gore Jr., Bills (ADP: RB73, 227.9)

Frank Gore was a staple in the fantasy conversation for 16 seasons, a true legend. His son, however, isn’t quite there yet. Or even close. Frank Gore Jr. was a UDFA who signed with the Bills, a team that also drafted RB Ray Davis Jr. in the fourth round. They have a rushing QB, James Cook, and now Davis, along with Ty Johnson, so there’s no room for Gore. He could make the team, end up on the practice squad, or get cut entirely until the 53-man roster is finalized, but even as a last-ditch effort, I’d rather have Devontez Walker, Jalen Tolbert, or Will Shipley.

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Odds and lines subject to change. See terms at draftkings.com/dfs