Predictions for the second half of the MLB 2024, chances for the World Series: This is how the playoff races develop

We’re officially at the halfway point of the MLB season. The dog days of July and August can be a quiet time during baseball season, but that’s only true if you’re not keeping an eye on the playoff races. With an expanded playoff field, more teams are within striking distance of a playoff spot than we’re used to.

In the American League, there are currently five teams just 7.5 games away from a wild card spot, while in the National League, there are seven teams with six games. Will some teams have to decide at the trade deadline whether to trade? Yes, but you just have to get into the playoffs and anything can happen. Just look at last season when the Arizona Diamondbacks reached the World Series, won 84 games and snuck in as the NL’s last wild card team.

My MLB model creates a forecast for each player, which can then be combined into a team rating. From there, I can simulate every game of the regular season and playoffs to see how often each team wins the World Series. This process is run 100,000 times to get a large enough sample size that most closely reflects expected outcomes. I should note that I do not forecast trades before they are official.

Predictions for the rest of the 2024 MLB season

XWINS indicates how many wins a team averaged during simulations, PLAYOFFS indicates how many times a team reached the postseason, DIV indicates how many times they won their division, PENNANT indicates how many times they reached the World Series, and CHAMPS indicates how many times they won the World Series.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are your favorites in the World Series in both my model and BetMGM, where the Dodgers are given +333 odds to win. My model is split on who should be the second favorite. BetMGM has the Philadelphia Phillies (+450), while the Yankees are the second most likely champion according to my simulations. Subjectively, I think my model rates the Yankees a bit too high. Partly that’s because of Gerrit Cole’s difficult forecast for the rest of the season. Cole’s velocity was below his historical average in his first two starts, but showed an upward trend in his last three. Cole’s form will be paramount to the Yankees’ success in October.

BetMGM currently has the Phillies win total odds at 100.5 with the over odds at -120. My model isn’t quite that high (97.8 wins), but agrees that the Phillies are the team that will finish the regular season with the most wins. If the Phillies want to beat a superior Dodgers team, home field advantage will help them greatly throughout the National League playoffs.

The year is constantly changing, but my model continues to underestimate the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians have a 4.5 game lead at halftime, but simulations favor the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central. Subjectively, that number seems a bit off again, but I wouldn’t rush to the counter to bet BetMGM’s -175 odds for the Guardians to win the division. I’d put my money on the Twins at +200.

Of the teams currently not in contention for a playoff spot, the Houston Astros have the best chance of making the American League playoffs. Their prediction (60.8%) is even higher than that of the Boston Red Sox (49.5%). But that’s mainly because the Astros are fighting for the AL West, while the Red Sox have little chance of making the AL East.

As for the National League, the team with the best playoff chances that is currently out of the playoffs are the San Diego Padres. The Padres have a higher chance of making the playoffs (52%) than two of the current NL wild card teams. The Cardinals (45.3%) and Mets (42.8%) have both made the playoffs in less than half of the simulations.

(Photo by Shohei Ohtani and Teoscar Hernández: Michael Owens / Getty Images)