NFC North Odds Market is surprisingly skeptical about Jordan Love

The offseason hype trains are in full swing ahead of the 2024 season, especially in the NFC North. The Detroit Lions are gearing up for another run after being back in the picture for the first time in decades. The Minnesota Vikings have a shiny new rookie quarterback and an electrifying arsenal of pass catchers. The Green Bay Packers are coming off a strong playoff run with their young core. And the Chicago Bears have cleaned up the slate againalthough this time with more firepower.

The NFL offseason is full of Instagram workout videos, young players and teams predicted to make big leaps, and news of certain guys being “lined up all over the field” and “in the best shape of their lives.” It’s important to sift through all the uninformed chatter as bored football fans count down the months until kickoff. Betting markets can help us do just that.

Markets don’t just represent where regular Twitter folks put their money. Instead, they are optimized to take into account every piece of public information, which is achieved primarily through smart moves related to betting. The NFC North is an expectedly crowded field with no monstrous favorite. However, the Lions stand out in the eyes of the market as having the most legitimacy.

In 2023, Jared Goff and Dan Campbell led them to the NFC Championship Game thanks to an explosive offense that finished in the top five in passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Behind a strong offensive line and with stars in the backfield like Jahmyr Gibbs and in the slot with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Goff was the only big question mark, given his history as a mediocre quarterback. Brad Holmes answered that with a gigantic contract extension that turned the market on its head just in time for Jordan Love’s negotiations with the rival Packers. After the loss to end last season in Santa Clara, Campbell lamented that it “may have been our only chance.” Betting markets disagree: Detroit has only a +150 chance of defending its title as NFC North champions.

The Packers went to the playoffs, dominated in Dallas, pushed the San Francisco 49ers to the brink and introduced the world to its third straight franchise playmaker. Yet Green Bay is priced nearly even with Ryan Poles’ revamped Bears. The Packers are +210, with their rivals hot on their heels at +260. Chicago fans have become known in NFL circles as the guys who cried “wolf” after regularly exaggerating the impact of their offseason acquisitions and making absurd claims and comparisons about their young quarterbacks Mitchell Trubisky and Justin Fields. Despite those claims, the rivalry has remained unchanged, with the Packers leading the pack, winning 23 of 26 games against the Bears over the past 13 seasons — not to mention what has become of Trubisky and Fields.

However, Caleb Williams earned so much respect during his college career at Oklahoma and USC that the market actually puts him right where Love is after four years of development in Green Bay. Coming out of Utah State University, Love was touted as a raw talent and was the fourth quarterback selected from his draft class. He seems to have landed in the perfect situation, as he needed all that progressive development to convince most doubters by the end of his first season as a quarterback. In contrast, Williams was the projected No. 1 pick long before Poles sent in the card. He has played a mobile, improvisational and fast offense under Lincoln Riley, and his foot game and body control looked genuinely Mahomey-esque on tape, as Cris Collinsworth would say.

Football is a team sport, so the odds are representative of the entire roster in all three phases: depth, coaches, and just about anything else you can think of. However, football is also unique in its game structure, with a single position being more important than many others combined. This is a reality that is evident in the playoffs, in crucial situations, and in just about anything that goes into winning.

The NFC North is full of controversial quarterbacks. Goff has teetered around mediocrity in terms of talent but has an impressive record in terms of team success; Williams and JJ McCarthy are the subject of wide-ranging opinions about how they might adapt to the next level, with solid rosters at their disposal if possible. Love has been Schrodinger’s quarterback for years, and there’s little data to justify bold claims about his future. His doubters held out for years until Love slowly silenced them over the course of the holiday season. Although many have raised their expectations to the heights of CJ Stroud and Jalen Hurts, the market seems to be saying the verdict is out yet. That is, when they say he’ll put up an uphill battle with a rookie and fall behind Goff.

I interpret it that way because Brian Gutekunst has, in reality, surrounded Love with talent, young and old. He added some key missing pieces to the defense, safeties Xavier McKinney and Javon Bullard, swapped coordinators, and will bring Eric Stokes back from injury purgatory. Expectations for Green Bay’s defense should be as high as they’ve ever been, which has been a false assumption in the past, but it seems like it will take a lot to derail this unit this time around. On offense, Love has an elite playmaker whose system he fits elegantly into. The offensive line isn’t deep, but it’s loaded with talent, proven and not. Signing Josh Jacobs sets Aaron Jones’ age clock back four years, making the corps of young pass catchers the only real question mark.

After playing great football through 2023, expectations are high for Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Luke Musgrave in their second or third seasons. Overall, if Jordan Love is the player he is, the Packers should be near the top of the NFC North. Pessimism about their playoff prospects in a weak conference is pessimism about the verdict Love has earned in the eyes of many. If you’re confident he’s the real deal, +210 seems pretty cheap.