Can a hotline prevent a war in the South China Sea?

I know that when this hotline rings, it can only mean one thing: Beijing and Manila are again arguing over uninhabitable rocks. China and the Philippines have According to reports A bilateral hotline has been set up to help prevent a deadly incident in the disputed South China Sea.

The efforts to improve communication follow a particularly violentconfrontation on June 17, when Chinese sailors armed with bladed weapons surrounded and boarded Filipino ships. One Filipino sailor lost his finger in the attack, and there are fears that Manila could activate its mutual defense pact with the United States if anyone is killed.

The Biden administration has taken a nuanced position, assuring Manila that it will fully comply with the treaty while seeking to signal to China that it is not giving the Philippines a free pass. Jeremy Chan says proactive communication following the June 17 incident helped calm the mood.

“Beijing interpreted the June 28 phone call between Deputy Foreign Minister Kurt Campbell and China’s Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu “particularly as a clear signal that Washington does not support Manila in asserting its territorial claims too aggressively,” he said.

The ability to quickly pick up the phone and discuss future incidents is a useful pressure release valve, but in the long term the South China Sea and the shoals used for de facto control will remain a point of tension. We are watching how this will affect US and Chinese efforts to stabilize their own relations.