Gretchen Whitmer’s record would be difficult to sell to a national audience

As Democratic donors, lawmakers and pundits scramble to find a way to replace President Joe Biden (D) as their party’s presidential nominee this fall, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) continues to be mentioned as a possible replacement candidate. It’s easy to see why many Democrats believe Whitmer, who recently said it wouldn’t hurt President Biden to take a cognitive test, would be a more competitive candidate than Biden. But a closer look at Whitmer’s record as governor reveals a record that could be difficult to defend outside of Democratic states.

Major policy changes that Gov. Whitmer has pushed through since Democrats took control of the Michigan House and Senate — such as rolling back an income tax cut enacted by her predecessor and repealing the Right to Work Act so that Michigan workers can again be forced to join a union as a condition of employment — are seen as major victories by the Democratic Party’s top donors, but will prove unpopular with voters in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and other swing states that will decide whether Democrats retain control of the White House and U.S. Senate in 2024. And while Whitmer has been able to weather the backlash over the draconian lockdowns she enacted during the pandemic but sidestepped herself, voters nationally are unlikely to be so forgiving.

Not only is Whitmer’s record a hard sell to independent voters and voting groups in swing states, it will also provide plenty of fodder for Republican ad makers. Take, for example, the controversial decision by Whitmer and Attorney General Dana Nessel (D) to reverse an income tax cut signed into law by Whitmer’s predecessor, Rick Snyder. Over the past four years, more than half of the states have passed income tax cuts. At a time when most states, even Democratic ones, are cutting income taxes, this move, supported by Governor Whitmer, to raise the tax rate again made Michigan an outsider.

Governor Whitmer and Attorney General Nessel resorted to a novel legal theory to overturn the tax cut passed by her predecessor and a majority of the state legislature. All believed that it would be a permanent reduction in the tax rate as long as revenue thresholds were met. Those revenue thresholds were met and, as a result, Michigan’s income tax rate was reduced from 4.25% to 4.05% last year. Although the legislation creating this tax cut does not require anything of the sort, Governor Whitmer and Attorney General Nessel now claim that the tax rate must go back to 4.25%.

Because that decision is being appealed, the Michigan Supreme Court will make the final decision on whether this income tax cut is temporary or permanent. Whitmer’s decision to support administrative enforcement of an income tax increase that is not provided for by law will play well with many donors and progressive activists on the coast. But such a maneuver is unlikely to play well with swing voters in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and other swing states.

Another progressive accomplishment that resonates well with key Democratic constituencies but could damage Governor Whitmer’s standing with swing state voters is her repeal of Michigan’s Right-to-Work law, which protected workers from having to join a union and pay dues as a condition of employment. Like Whitmer’s call for a higher state income tax, her repeal of the Right-to-Work law is one area where Michigan is an exception. While Right-to-Work has been passed in five states over the past decade, it has only been repealed in Michigan.

Despite the repeal of Michigan’s Right-to-Work law, the number of Right-to-Work states has increased by more than 18 percent over the past decade. Most states—26 after Michigan’s repeal—now have a Right-to-Work law in place. And more importantly, the states with the fastest-growing populations are all Right-to-Work states, while the states with the greatest population loss due to internal migration are not Right-to-Work states.

Aside from population growth, Right-to-Work states perform better in job creation, income growth, and GDP growth than states without Right-to-Work laws. Like her income tax increase, repealing Right-to-Work is another accolade that will help Whitmer curry favor with influential Democratic Party insiders, but it may make her less attractive to many voters in swing states.

“Nothing is clearer than the repeal of the Right to Work Act, the increase in the income tax and the repeal of the Education Accountability Acts, Governor Whitmer’s reckless and inexperienced approach to promoting economic growth,” said Republican Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt. “It’s no surprise that she now has to bribe companies with billions in subsidies just to consider investing here. This is a complete failure.”

Aside from the controversial policy changes she has pushed through, Whitmer’s circumvention of her own pandemic lockdown orders would likely appear in Republican campaign ads should Democrats find a way to put her at the top of the ballot. In her new book True GretchWhitmer recounts how she, like California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), was caught evading the business closures she imposed on her constituents during the pandemic. But Whitmer clarifies that Newsom violated his own lockdown rules to dine at a Michelin-starred restaurant, while she was caught in a dive bar.

As she travels on her book tour, Governor Whitmer will find receptive audiences in the places she visits outside of Michigan, including Seattle, Los Angeles, Martha’s Vineyard, and Washington, D.C. Although Whitmer’s book tour is currently scheduled to visit only Democratic states, additional tour dates for late summer and fall will soon be announced. Governor Whitmer will be doing well in many cities and towns in Democratic states — such as Austin, Atlanta, Asheville, Charleston, and Nashville — selling her book. However, her record as governor will be a harder sell to voters in those places should she run nationally, whether in 2024 or a later election.