Fantasy Football: Will James Cook add value in 2024?

As a second-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, James Cook came into the NFL with high expectations. According to FantasyPros’ average draft position (ADP), Cook was drafted as RB39 in 2022 and finished the season as RB44.

Cook’s breakout season came in 2023, when he finished as the RB11 after posting an RB24 ADP. Cook is constantly making headlines surrounding the 2024 fantasy football season. He is being touted as a breakout with top-five potential.

We’ve already seen the breakout moment when the third-year running back finished over 10 spots better than his ADP from last year, but we can take our time to look at his peak power.

How good can Cook be in the 2024 season? Is he a good value given his current ADP? Here’s Cook’s fantasy outlook.

James Cook Fantasy Football Outlook

Blatant lack of touchdowns

With Devin Singletary no longer part of the squad in 2023, Cook has firmly established himself as RB1 in the Buffalo Bills’ offense.

He increased his total number of touches from 110 to 281. His run attempts jumped from 89 to 237. It certainly helped that the Bills increased their run attempts to 3rd in football last season, but in 2022 they are only 16th.

As mentioned, Cook would finish 13 spots above his ADP. Honestly, he could have been a lot better in this 16.5 touches per game offense. What was the main problem?

Josh Allen scored 15 rushing touchdowns and Cook scored 2. Despite the huge difference in numbers, the two were even tied with 2.0 red zone rushing attempts per game and a 30.9% share of red zone attempts.

However, Allen was consistently rewarded with runs inside the five-yard line, completing 43.8% of the team’s attempts inside that five. Cook, on the other hand, only had 12.5% ​​of runs in the same category.

Cook will constantly be concerned about getting enough scoring opportunities. In 2023, he had an 11.1% share of red zone targets, which gives him hope of reaching the red zone. This helped him score the majority of his touchdowns in 2023, recording six receiving tuddies and two rushing tuddies.

It was still a successful season for Cook, as he set a career high with 1,567 scrimmage yards – the third-highest mark among running backs. But imagine if Cook also had a good number of touchdowns; he would be considered a golden ticket to the 2024 fantasy draft.

Another thorn in Cook’s side?

Now that we’ve covered his 2023 season, let’s look at Cook’s chances of exceeding expectations again in 2024.

His ADP currently stands at RB14. Last year’s RB11 finish suggests Cook has good value, but we can’t overlook the signing of fourth-round rookie Ray Davis.

The rookie from Kentucky is drawing interest as a handcuff running back. Latavius ​​Murray was Cook’s biggest competition in the backfield last season. While it wasn’t much of a challenge given Murray’s 79 carries this season, he still managed to get 34.4% of the team’s attempts inside the five-yard line.

Davis is a 5-foot-8, 220-pound bowling ball and appears ready to take over Murray’s role in 2023. Scouting reports highlighted his physicality and strength. Davis finished the 2023 season with the ninth-most forced missed tackles and the 11th-most yards after contact per attempt.

This freshman is a screaming goal line back, backed up by his 21 touchdowns in the college game last season. Cook could once again come up short when it comes to runs inside the five.

Allen also remains one of the league’s best rushers at the goal line. Between Allen and Davis, rushing touchdowns will likely continue to be a problem for Cook.

James Cook Fantasy Football Projection

According to numberFire’s fantasy football projections, Cook is on track to be RB14 – and that’s where his ADP stands.

His projected stats through 17 games are 1,078 rushing yards, 413 receiving yards, 7 rushing touchdowns and 3 receiving touchdowns. The 1,491 scrimmage yards aren’t far off from last season’s 1,567. Most importantly, the 10 touchdown total would be a jump from the 8 touchdowns in 2023.

The projections call for a significant increase in Cook’s rushing touchdowns. That’s the main takeaway from the projections. Much of that could depend on Davis, who is only projected to have 64 runs and 2 touchdowns.

Murray finished with 4 touchdowns and completed over 30.0% of the team’s runs inside the five-yard line. If Davis steps into a similar role, his total touchdowns will likely be higher, which would hurt Cook’s numbers.

Allen is also projected to have 9 rushing touchdowns, up from 15 in 2023. The overall touchdown projections are in Cook’s favor, indicating potential for a top-five finish.

The effort is definitely there thanks to Cook’s good workload, and it only increased when offensive coordinator Joe Brady took over in Week 11 of last season.

Before Brady, Cook averaged 14.4 touches per game. In the last nine games with Brady as OC, his touches increased to 20.1 per game.

That jump over time can’t be completely ignored. Brady could continue to push for Cook to get the ball. If that workload continues through 2024, 20.1 touches per game is 3.0 more than numberFire’s projections. That would give Cook 51 more touches on the season.

Ultimately, Cook’s projections suggest decent value, as he has the same number as his RB14 ADP. There’s not much to lose here. We know Cook will have plenty of work to do, and if his touchdown numbers increase – as numberFire suspects – he would be on his way to becoming one of the best running backs in fantasy football.

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