Donald Trump’s near-death has given new momentum to his movement

“Positive” was the watchword on the first day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee yesterday. That was how attendees described the mood at the event, in line with Donald Trump’s own directive to emphasize unity and moderate inflammatory rhetoric. That was how they reacted to the former president narrowly escaping an assassination attempt last weekend. And that was how they felt about the upcoming election, in which Trump has taken the lead in several polls in the swing states and the respected Cook Political Report is predicting a gain of six states to the Republicans.

Just two days after a bullet nearly ended their candidate’s life, Republicans, like the candidate himself, had virtually stared death in the face and emerged defiant. One attendee burst into tears when she heard the news. Another said she was not surprised. Another was getting a haircut.

Many described a sense of relief. Trump’s death would have marked the end not only of a beloved political figure, but of an irreplaceable political force, no matter how deeply they imagined their position.

Many others described it as the political equivalent of a shot of adrenaline.

“We are all totally shaken up,” said one. “We are more determined than ever.”

The candidate’s near-death experience had made it clear to those present how existentially the election was at stake. They had realized how quickly and easily their political project could have collapsed. Like their political opponents, these Republicans spoke of the need to win the election in November and how it would decide the future of the country.

These intense emotions culminated in the evening’s climax, when a bandaged Trump walked from a stadium corridor into the convention hall to thunderous applause on camera. Nearby firefighters rushed to the gate to witness the scene, before one lamented, “Now I have to get back to work.”

The big news of the day, however, was the announcement of JD Vance as the vice presidential candidate. Vance was not necessarily the first choice of many of my interviewees, but they readily recognized the advantages he would bring to the election: he has potential appeal in the Rust Belt, is more aligned with Trump than the “defector” Mike Pence, and most importantly – unlike the political leadership of the two major parties – he is young. (Vance is 39.)

One of those people was Shalira Taylor-Jackson, an Ohio alternate who was attending her second Republican convention after the 2016 convention in her hometown of Cleveland. Jackson, who is black and resents accusations that Republicans are the party of “rich, white men,” started out as a volunteer for Barack Obama in 2008.

“They had me at Hope and Change, but nothing changed,” she told me. “Honestly, they betrayed us.”

Jackson’s first choice had been South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, citing his work on the First Step criminal justice reform bill and his commitment to defunding police departments that failed to implement certain reforms after the murder of George Floyd. But Jackson, whose husband is a police officer, was pleased with the choice of Vance. She believed his “Never Trump” record would help unite the party and appreciated the fact that the senator had supported her during her run for a House seat in 2022.

In the end, for many, it was enough that Trump had chosen Vance. Republicans have great confidence in the former president, not only because of the presidential candidacy, but also because of him himself.

For all the confidence that convention attendees said they felt heading into November, many were skeptical, expecting what one called “games” from the Democrats, ranging from lawsuits and voter manipulation to voter “importation.” Many believed last weekend’s assassination attempt was the work of Joe Biden and the Democrats – carried out, as far as we know, by a lone, disturbed gunman with unclear motives, who was a registered Republican, grew up in a house with pro-Trump signs, and was described by a classmate as a conservative.

“A wounded snake bites the deepest,” warned a 24-year-old Republican.

Participants were angry at what they saw as cynical efforts by Democrats to thwart Trump’s presidency and the “lawfare” waged against him after his defeat in the last election. Some predicted that Trump would run his own campaign in return.

“If they win, there will be investigations and people will go to jail,” one of the participants told me.

Despite the direction from Trump’s team, much of the official convention program did not suggest unity or cooled rhetoric. The first speaker of the evening was Mark Robinson, the North Carolina gubernatorial candidate who, among other things, has a history as a Holocaust denier and recently told a crowd that “some people have to be killed” and “out of necessity.” Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson, in his speech, called the opposing side’s policies “a clear and present danger to America, our institutions, our values ​​and our people,” then claimed that the teleprompter simply had not been updated with a more positive message. Tim Scott declared that America is not a racist country, except in parts governed by Democrats. Numerous speakers used offensive language toward LGBTQ people. Messages on trucks around the party grounds urged attendees to “fight left-wing media.”

Regardless, the inescapable takeaway from the first day of the convention was that the movement behind Trump is united, motivated, more committed than ever to the president and his political platform, and fixated on winning. In contrast, polls ahead of the event showed that more than two-thirds of Democrats are unhappy with Biden as their candidate, including 46 percent in the must-win swing state of Pennsylvania. That same evening, Biden gave a 20-minute interview with NBC’s Lester Holt, during which he again struggled to speak coherently and lost his thread several times. It looks like a very troubling matchup for the Democrats.