Shortly after the war in Gaza began, Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians. These attacks led to skirmishes along the border, which escalated and spread further into the territory of both countries.
On July 10, for example, the Israeli military announced it had hit a Hezbollah position just 79 kilometers from the capital Beirut. The attack came two weeks after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant threatened to “take Lebanon back to the Stone Age.” After an 18-year lull, a new war between Hezbollah and Israel seems inevitable.
Lebanese politics is based on a system of power-sharing between the country’s various sectarian groups. One of these groups is Hezbollah, a Shiite organization that emerged in the 1980s.
Hezbollah has almost complete control over its own community, which it also represents in parliament. Dissenting Shiite voices have all but disappeared following the assassination of Shiite intellectual and vocal Hezbollah critic Lokman Slim in 2021. The rest of Lebanese society, however, is divided over Hezbollah and the group’s involvement in a war with Israel.
The leaders of Lebanon’s other two major religious communities, Sunni Muslims and Christians, as well as the smaller but politically powerful Druze community, have issued statements urging caution and restraint. Nevertheless, some Sunni and Christian groups in particular sympathize with Hezbollah’s stance.
Atef Safadi / EPA
Sunnis
Sunnis in Lebanon are ideologically divided. Since the beginning of the war, Sunni Islamist groups have begun to side with Hezbollah against Israel. On the other hand, more secular groups and people are calling for restraint.
The country’s former Sunni prime minister, Fouad Siniora, accused Hezbollah of leading Lebanon “to the brink of the abyss.” Siniora was in office in 2006 when a cross-border attack by Hezbollah fighters sparked a 34-day conflict with Israel.
Many Sunni Islamists in Lebanon have long viewed Hezbollah with suspicion, largely because the group turned its weapons on Sunni supporters of the Lebanese government during a brief period of intense sectarian violence in May 2008.
But some of the Sunni groups that were suspicious of Hezbollah have grown closer to the organization over the past nine months. One of these groups is the Lebanese branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, Jamaa Islamiya, whose Al-Fajr forces have been fighting alongside Hezbollah against Israel in southern Lebanon since late October 2023.
However, the group’s participation in the hostilities was “largely symbolic and limited.” By May 2024, the group had lost only seven fighters.
Christians
The attitude of the Christian community in Lebanon towards Hezbollah is essentially divided between three political parties: the Kataeb and the Lebanese Forces (LF) on the anti-Hezbollah side, and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), which has largely supported the Shiite party since 2006.
In recent months, LF and Kataeb leaders have accused Hezbollah of waging an unnecessary “war of attrition” and provoking Israel into attacks on Lebanon. They appear unwilling to get involved in a regional conflict in the hope of protecting Christian areas, and they criticize Hezbollah for making unilateral decisions on behalf of all Lebanese citizens.
The FPM’s position is more complicated. For over a decade, the FPM has provided Hezbollah with cross-sectarian protection. However, since October 2022, relations have become increasingly strained. The term of then-President Michel Aoun was coming to an end and Hezbollah refused to support the presidential ambitions of FPM leader and Aoun’s son-in-law, Gibran Bassil.
In April 2024, Bassil stated that the FPM supports “the resistance” (Hezbollah’s assumed name) but “rejects Hezbollah’s position of participating in the Gaza war without national consensus.” More recently, the FPM used the threat of war to warn of state collapse if the presidency in Lebanon remains vacant.
Two other important Christian actors are the Patriarch of the Maronite Church, Bechara Boutros Rai, and a right-wing private militia in east Beirut called Jnoud al-Rab (Soldiers of God).
Since November 2023, Patriarch Rai has called on the authorities to protect Lebanon and has made regular statements against Hezbollah’s involvement in the Gaza war. In June, he described Hezbollah’s activities in the south as “terrorist,” leading to a boycott of the Patriarchate’s spiritual summit in June by the Shiite religious leadership.
Wael Hamzeh / EPA
Jnoud al-Rab claims to represent and defend Achrafieh, a Christian neighborhood in Beirut. The group has unofficial political and religious support and positions itself as the Christian counterpart to Hezbollah’s concept of “self-security.”
The group has exacerbated sectarian tensions in Lebanon. Jnoud al-Rab claims that Hezbollah’s actions endanger the country and Lebanon’s Christian community. In January 2024, the group hijacked flight control panels at Beirut airport and displayed a message warning Hezbollah against war with Israel.
Read more: Lebanon: The far-right group “Soldiers of God” uses the country’s unresolved past to stir up sectarian tensions
Druze
Leading Druze politician Walid Jumblatt is the weather vane of Lebanese politics. Although now retired, he remains an important voice for the Druze (who make up about 5% of the Lebanese population).
In October, he called on Hezbollah “not to get drawn into the war.” On social media, he also called on Israel’s Druze community not to take part in the war.
However, he made it clear at the beginning of the conflict that he would side with Hezbollah if Israel attacked Lebanon. And since then, Jumblatt has noted that “the rules of engagement have changed.”
The major Lebanese communities have largely been consistent in their calls for restraint and would prefer that Hezbollah avoid war with Israel. But Hezbollah’s actions have deepened sectarian divides and complicated Lebanon’s domestic politics. Should war occur, however, the Lebanese sects are all likely to rally behind Hezbollah, as was the case in 2006.
