If Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in November, he will quickly call for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and has developed “well-founded plans” for this, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán claimed after private talks with the Republican candidate.
This prospect means that the EU should resume direct diplomatic communication with Russia and start “high-level” negotiations with China to find a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine, the Hungarian prime minister said in a private letter to EU leaders following consultations in Moscow and Beijing.
Orbán also said in the letter that based on his recent talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the “general observation” is “that the intensity of the military conflict will radically escalate in the near future.” Moscow is relying heavily on Beijing to resolve the conflict.
Orbán’s office declined to comment when asked by the Financial Times, which has seen his letter. Trump’s campaign team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
His trips to Putin, Xi and Trump over the past two weeks while holding the rotating EU presidency shocked his allies in the bloc and NATO.
Many fear that Orbán’s support for a peace settlement plays into the hands of the Kremlin as long as Russia still controls large parts of eastern Ukraine and undermines the West’s resolve to defend Kyiv’s territorial integrity.
“We cannot expect (Trump) to launch a peace initiative until the elections. However, I can say with certainty that, soon after his election victory, he will not wait until his inauguration, but will be ready to act as a peace broker immediately,” Orbán wrote in his letter to European Council President Charles Michel and other EU heads of state and government. “He has detailed and well-founded plans for this.”
This means that the EU must anticipate the US change of course, Orbán said, and either recognise the need for immediate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine or take more responsibility for financing Ukrainian defence.
JD Vance, the Republican senator from Ohio whom Trump named as his running mate on Monday, used an FT op-ed in February to demand that Europe take greater responsibility in supporting Ukraine.
“I am more than convinced that in the likely event of a victory of President Trump, the distribution of financial burdens between the US and the EU with regard to financial support for Ukraine will change significantly to the detriment of the EU,” Orbán wrote in his letter.
The Hungarian Prime Minister has long been the most pro-Russian politician in the EU. He criticizes Western sanctions against Moscow and military support for Ukraine, but at the same time calls for a ceasefire in the war and peace talks.
This contradicts the EU’s common position that it should help Ukraine in its defence and that only Kyiv can decide when to start negotiations with Russia.
“Our European strategy in the name of transatlantic unity has copied the US’s pro-war policy,” Orbán wrote.
“We do not yet have a sovereign and independent European strategy or a political action plan. I propose to discuss whether it makes sense to continue this policy in the future.”
He told EU leaders: “We can find a window of opportunity with a strong moral and rational basis to open a new chapter in our policy… (and) seek to reduce tensions and/or create the conditions for a temporary ceasefire and/or start peace negotiations.”
Orbán’s description of Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine is in line with a strategy paper on the conflict written by two of the former president’s allies who are expected to take on senior national security roles in his administration if he wins the US elections in November.
The plan, by Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz of the America First Policy Institute, proposed that the United States continue to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses, but future military aid would require Kyiv’s participation in peace talks with Russia.
Additional reporting by Felicia Schwartz in Denver
