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What games does Michigan State need to win this season?

What games does Michigan State need to win this season?

Michigan State and coach Jonathan Smith undoubtedly have one of the most challenging schedules in the country. In particular, Michigan State has arguably the most difficult four-game series ahead of it. In five weeks, Michigan State will play two teams that were ranked in the top five in the preseason. Smith and his coaching staff face one of the most daunting schedules in college football, on top of all the other difficulties they’ve had to contend with this offseason.

Smith and Michigan State play two weeks in a row at home against Ohio State, away against Oregon, home against Iowa and away against Michigan. That’s a four-game series that few college football teams would want to play, let alone one in the early stages of a rebuild like Smith and Michigan State.

The four games are a challenge; Smith and Michigan State deserve a free pass for almost anything that happens in that span. Most would agree that Michigan State will likely lose all four games; it’s just a question of how competitive Coach Smith and Michigan State will be during those games.

Even if they lose all four games, Smith and Michigan State would still have a real chance to get to a bowl game this season. However, if they lose all four games, the other games on Michigan State’s schedule become much more important. If Michigan State loses four games in a row, there is almost no room for more losses if it wants to get to a bowl game in Smith’s first season in East Lansing.

Six wins are needed for a team to earn a bowl game invitation. After subtracting the four games Smith and Michigan State are likely to lose, Michigan State has eight games left to secure those six wins. If Smith and Michigan State hope to make it to a bowl game, there are six games they absolutely must win.

The first games to win are easy to identify. Home games against Prarie View A&M and Florida Atlantic early in the season are games that even a re-forming Michigan State team should win. Michigan State needs to win four of its remaining six games to qualify for a bowl game. It’s unlikely they’ll win all six, but they don’t need to reach a bowl game.

While it’s possible to win both games, Michigan State will likely lose one of its early road games against Maryland or Boston College. The game against Boston College is the game they have the most chance of winning. That leaves Michigan State with games against Indiana, Illinois, Rutgers and Purdue late in the season to secure the additional three wins needed to make the bowl team. Purdue is arguably the toughest of those four, so the games against Rutgers, Illinois and Indiana are must-wins for Smith and Michigan State this season.

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