Israel-Lebanon conflict and the threat of a full-scale war – Firstpost

The UN recently warned that a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon is a huge danger. UN Resolution 181 established Israel as a state, and since then the state has faced several resolutions for and against it, and continues to exist.

The founding of Israel was unique in its history; since its founding, the country has faced wars. It has fought a number of wars, including the War of Independence (1948), the Suez Crisis (1956), the Six-Day War (1967), the Yom Kippur War (1973) and the Lebanon War (1982), followed by the first and second intifadas. War is therefore not a new phenomenon for Israel.

Insight into the Israel-Lebanon conflict

The conflict between Israel and Lebanon is a long-standing conflict whose roots go back to the founding of Israel. At the beginning of the War of Independence (1948), Lebanon posed a problem for Israel. The Lebanese army supported the other Arab armies in this war. The problem escalated when the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) was founded and recruited militants in Lebanon.

In 1971–72, Fatah was expelled from Jordan and invaded southern Lebanon, leading to an increase in cross-border violence. Israel responded by attacking Lebanon to push the PLO north of the Litani River (Norton, 2017). However, the PLO continued its campaign against Israel, so Israel invaded Lebanon again in 1982.

Then, on May 17, 1983, an agreement was reached between Israel and Lebanon to stop cross-border attacks. The focus of the agreement was to normalize relations between the two states (Norton, 2017). However, the May 17 agreement failed to normalize relations as the Lebanese Civil War continued in 1984 and Shiite and Druze militias defeated the Lebanese army. In 1985, Israel withdrew from Lebanon, marking the end of Israeli and US influence in Lebanon. However, Israeli control over the security buffer zone remained.

After 1985, the Lebanese Shiite Islamist organization Hezbollah emerged as the dominant non-state actor against Israel. This organization was founded as a result of the Israeli attack on Lebanon in 1982 and was inspired by the Iranian Revolution. Hezbollah was chosen by the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Khomeini. The goal of this group was to end the Israeli occupation through armed conflict. It continued its resistance to the Israeli occupation. After the end of the Lebanese Civil War, the warring parties agreed to disarm, but Hezbollah did not. Over time, as the South Lebanon Army, allied with Hezbollah, collapsed, it became somewhat weaker. In 2000, Israel withdrew its troops from Lebanon within the borders set by the UN.

After 2000, Hezbollah continued its cross-border attacks. Hezbollah used the tactic of exchanging Israeli soldiers for the release of Lebanese citizens from Israeli prisons. In this context, the Lebanon War started in 2006 when Hezbollah captured the Israeli soldiers. However, the war was ended in 2006 with the UN Security Council Resolution 1701. After the UN Security Council Resolution, the situation between the two countries was comparatively normal for some time despite the violation of the ceasefire agreement by both parties.

Current situation

When the Israel-Palestine conflict was still ongoing in October 2023, Hezbollah showed its solidarity with the Palestinians by carrying out attacks on Israel. This act itself added fuel to the fire and caused serious problems between the two. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) states in its report that between October 7, 2023 and June 21, 2024, about 7,400 attacks were exchanged between Israel, Hezbollah and other armed groups in Lebanon. “Israel alone is responsible for 83 percent of these attacks, a total of 6,142 incidents in which at least 543 people were killed in Lebanon.” “Hezbollah and other armed groups were responsible for 1,258 attacks in which at least 21 Israelis were killed” (Hussein 2024). Other actors involved in the escalation that played an important role in the attacks on Israel include “Hamas’s Qassam Brigades, the Lebanese Al-Fajr Forces and the Amal Movement, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Al-Quds Brigades, both armed wings of Palestinian groups present in Lebanon” (Hussein 2024).

Israel claims that Hezbollah’s ongoing attacks and bombardments of Israel have caused the 80,000 citizens of northern Israel to flee and be unable to return to their homes. Israel also claimed that the towns and villages in northern Israel are threatened by Hezbollah’s presence on Israel’s border and that it will not tolerate Hezbollah’s aggression; it is time to take decisive action.

Possibility of a full-scale war?

Clausewitz’s philosophy of war assumes that there are three dominant tendencies of war: passion, chance and reason, as he writes in his book On War. He points out that when all three tendencies come together, war ultimately occurs. The first tendency – passion – concerns the people; it includes people’s desires, their beliefs, their feelings and their will, whether they want war or not. The second tendency – chance – points out the unpredictable nature of war, meaning that anything can happen by chance or luck. The third tendency – reason – means that the political authority and military officials provide the reason why war is necessary.

Applying Clausewitz’s theory to the Israel-Lebanon conflict, one can make an analysis of three war tendencies in the case of this conflict. In the case of the Lebanon conflict, 61 percent of Israeli Jews were in favor of military action against Hezbollah, despite knowing the consequences of a war between the two countries. Although 80 percent of people believe that international pressure should be put on Hezbollah to make it withdraw, support for the “international political option” has always been higher than for military approaches (Scheindlin, 2024).

Applying the second element of war mentioned by Clausewitz, chance, which refers to the unpredictability of war. Since Israel has experienced this many times in the past, it is armed with the most modern weapons and a robust army; therefore, Israel has fewer opportunities to take risks in war in this regard. Compared to Hezbollah fighters and their other allies, Israel is equipped with advanced weapons and technology and is much stronger, which currently puts it in a better position. In addition, Iran supports Hezbollah, and Israel would receive support from the United States, which would create a significant difference between the two.

Looking at the third tendency, the reason, the Israeli government has an obvious reason for war. Israel has experienced several wars since its establishment, including the war between Israel and Lebanon. Recently, both were involved in a conflict that resulted in the displacement of 80,000 citizens from northern Israel. The Netanyahu regime has already issued an open warning to Hezbollah, stating that it will not tolerate any further aggression and that Israel will also take appropriate measures to confront Hezbollah. Therefore, this tendency is also suitable for war in this context.

In short, in the event of a war between Israel and Lebanon, while Israelis are looking for a military solution to end the war, the majority of the population is looking for an international political solution, especially given the current circumstances. However, this opinion may change in the future. Although people’s opinions are not always in favor of war, sometimes war is inevitable. Especially in the case of Israel, where the current Netanyahu regime is facing corruption allegations and there is a large opposition to the incumbent, one could argue that war is necessary for its survival and retention of power. Although the second and third tendencies favor war in Israel, it remains to be seen whether it will opt for a full-scale war or whether it would rather opt for a “limited war.”

The author is a research fellow at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. The views expressed in the above article are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.

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