Tennessee meets Texas A&M

And then there were two. The Tennessee Volunteers take over the Texas A&M Aggies in the finals of this year’s College World Series. The Vols are only the fourth national No. 1 seed to reach the CWS finals (Texas in 2004 and 2009, Miami in 1999) and are likely only the second top-seeded team ever to win the title. Texas A&M is in the CWS finals for the first time and is seeking the program’s first championship title.

Although we’ll see a fifth consecutive SEC title up for grabs this weekend, and the sixth in seven years, there will be a first-time winner. Since 2011, we’ve had 13 unique champions in a row; since 2000, 18 different teams have won the CWS title.

So who will take home the trophy this year?

Tennessee is chasing history. The Vols are 10 behind the 1997 LSU “Geauxball” Tigers for the most home runs hit in a single season. That LSU team hit 188 home runs and Tennessee has 178 with possibly three games left. While it’s an improbable feat, that record was previously considered “unbeatable.”

As mentioned, the Vols are also looking to become the first No. 1 seed nationally to win the title since Miami did so in its first year in the Regionals-Super Regionals-CWS format in 1999. Since the CWS switched to a best-of-three series in 2003, no No. 1 overall seed has won the title.

Tennessee marks the only College World Series finals appearance for these two teams. The Volunteers lost to Oklahoma in 1951 and have not reached the championship stage since.

Texas A&M head coach Jim Schlossnagle originally hired Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello as an assistant coach and recruiting coordinator in 2010. Now, 14 years later, the former colleagues are battling for the national championship.

There’s no doubt about it, these are the two best teams in the country this year. Combined, they have 110 wins, just 25 losses, and 310 home runs. Both sides pack lethal punches with their entire lineup and feature some of the best pitching in the country.

With only a few games remaining between the two teams and college baseball history being true, it is expected that they will exhaust all options. Tennessee’s Drew Beam (9-2, 4.30 ERA) is the best starting pitcher in the series, while Texas A&M Closer Evan Aschenbeck (1.54 ERA, 10 saves) is the best pitcher. Two pitchers, Vol AJ Causey (12-3, 4.21) and Aggie Ryan Prager (9-1, 2.88), a total of 283 strikeouts and only 41 walks.

Offensive, Christian Moore (batting average .385) is the most dangerous player in either team’s dugout. The future top MLB draft pick has 33 home runs and will continue this season, leading both teams. Four other Tennessee hitters have 20+ home runs. Braden Montgomery (.322) leads A&M with 27 home runs.

The star power on both sides is undeniable, so who comes out on top?

Tennessee is by far the favorite in the series. The sportsbooks’ odds give the Vols a chance of winning of about 67.7%. For those interested in betting trends: the favorites are ahead 11-1 in CWS games this year.

But in the college baseball postseason, pitching is more important than anything else..

Texas A&M has more quality reserves from top to bottom. With potentially three hard-fought games in three days, depth in the rotation is essential. Vols closer Aaron Combs (3.32) has an iconic look and is an extremely effective arm, but I give the edge to Aschenbeck.

Eight of 12 Aggies with 10+ appearances this year have an ERA over 4.00 and 11 have over 5.00. A&M is performing better than Tennessee in season metrics, ranking fourth nationally in team ERA (versus sixth against Tennessee). They’re not lagging in offensive metrics either, ranking just six spots behind Tennessee in wOBA and four spots behind wRC+.

The bottom line is that Texas A&M can compete offensively, even against Tennessee’s historical long hitters. The Aggies have a slight advantage in pitching and have the best closer in the country.

My prediction is for the Texas A&M Aggies to win their first College World Series title in three games.

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