Could Lebanon be drawn into a larger war?

STORY: SIDON RESIDENT QASSEM QARAM: “Of course everyone is afraid. Anyone who tells you that they are not afraid is lying to themselves.”

In the southern city of Sidon, fears are growing that the Gaza war could expand and drag Lebanon into it.

:: Shomer Israel via Telegram

Regular clouds of smoke at the border indicate where Hezbollah rockets are being intercepted over northern Israel…

Or Israeli air strikes on southern Lebanon.

The Lebanese prepared for war after Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, issued stark threats on Wednesday (June 19).

He said that in the event of war, no place in Israel would be safe and even Cyprus could be in danger if it allowed Israel to use its bases.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel would “turn Beirut into Gaza” in the event of war.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued this warning on Friday (21 June).

“The risk of escalating conflict in the Middle East is real and must be avoided. Hasty moves and miscalculations could trigger a catastrophe that goes far beyond borders and, frankly, beyond imagination.”

:: Escalation of the border

Since the outbreak of the Gaza war in October, Hezbollah has fired rockets at Israel in solidarity with its Palestinian ally Hamas.

It says they will not stop until there is a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

Tens of thousands have been forced to leave their homes in Israel, where political pressure for tougher measures is growing.

In addition, tens of thousands of Lebanese have fled their homes due to Israeli air strikes.

US diplomacy also expressed increasing concern this week, with US President Joe Biden sending his special envoy Amos Hochstein and Secretary of State Antony Blinken urging Israeli officials to avoid further escalation.

:: Threat or deterrence?

Some diplomats and analysts say Nasrallah’s threats were intended to match Israel’s escalating rhetoric and have a deterrent effect.

:: Hezbollah Media Office

Hezbollah is flexing its muscles, resorting to increasingly powerful weapons and at the same time signalling that it does not want a full-scale war.

Israel has the strongest army in the Middle East.

But Hezbollah has thousands of fighters, many with experience in the Syrian civil war, and an arsenal of tens of thousands of rockets with which it could hit cities across Israel.

The company has a large fleet of drones and this week apparently flew one over the Israeli port city of Haifa, underscoring the potential threat to critical economic infrastructure, including power systems.

:: Israel prepares

Israeli officials believe the end of the main phase of fighting in the Gaza Strip is still weeks away.

This week, the army’s Northern Command announced that it had approved operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon.

:: Golan Heights

:: May 8, 2024

For weeks, Israeli commanders have been conducting training exercises and assessments in preparation.

But a war could overwhelm Israel’s famous Iron Dome missile defense system.

:: May 2000

And Israel has had painful experiences in Lebanon in the past.

After the invasion in 1982, the Lebanese Armed Forces occupied much of southern Lebanon for nearly two decades.

:: 2006

In 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought a month-long war.

Lebanon’s infrastructure and economy are already paralyzed – a result of decades of poor governance and conflict, including with Israel.